Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast

According to SMM's research findings, Yunnan Province is currently experiencing a dry season, with hydropower contribution remaining at a relatively low level. Enterprises have no immediate plans for production resumption and await clearer policy guidance from the power sector.

The implementation of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since June last year has led to bauxite surplus, brought challenges to consume domestically as the Indonesia's alumina plants have limited capacity. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Bauxite and Iron Ore Entrepreneurs Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia - APB3I), highlighted the struggle to secure external investment for alumina plant projects, while some entrepreneurs are forced to cut costs or halt production. However, there is hope for relief through potential relaxation of the export ban policy. Efforts are underway to boost alumina production capacity, although challenges persist in addressing the surplus bauxite issue.

One alumina producer in Chongqing decided to grow production in the face of strong price gains, Shanghai Metals Market learns. 

LME aluminum will trade at USD 2,005-2,035/mt on Thursday, and SHFE 1710 aluminum will regain losses seen on Wednesday’s night trading, with price estimated at RMB 16,000-16,250/mt. 

LME aluminum, which had been rising since the beginning of 2017, slid below the 40-day moving average for the first time, triggering bearish bets.

Prebaked anode prices in China’s domestic market rose by about 620 yuan per tonne in January 2017 after Shandong Weiqiao raised its procurement price. 

SHFE 1703 aluminum jumped at the tail of trading on January 12 and finally closed daily trading up by 2.47 percent. The same day, one rumor of capacity cuts disturbed the market.

Malaysia announced on Thursday to extend the ban on bauxite mining by another three months. 

Henan’s provincial government held an emergency response meeting on December’s 19 night after some local industrial enterprises took no measures to reduce pollution emissions.