By Carolina Curiel

ScrapMonster Author

SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for the month of September this year in its December 2016 Copper Bulletin published yesterday. According to preliminary ICSG data, copper production and usage data points to an apparent production surplus of around 15,000 metric tonnes during the month. However, the cumulative data for the first nine months of the year points to a production deficit of nearly 84,000 metric tonnes.

The refined copper market balance for the month of September ‘16 alone showed an apparent production surplus of around 15,000 metric tonnes. The apparent refined copper demand from China remained weak during the month. The production surplus for the month, after making seasonal adjustments for global refined copper production and usage, stood at 25,000 metric tonnes. The refined copper balance for the first nine-month period of the year ended in production deficit of around 84,000 metric tonnes as compared with the marginal production surplus of around 34,000 tonnes during the same period in 2015. The seasonally adjusted deficit stood at 29,000 t as against surplus of 34,000 t for the same period in 2015.

World refined copper production increased by nearly 3.0% (nearly 510,000 t) during the first nine months of 2016 in comparison with the corresponding nine-month period from January to September last year. Primary production was up 2.5%, whereas the secondary production was up by 5.5%. The refined copper production during the month witnessed significant growth of 7% in China. The production by the US witnessed an increase of 13%. The expansion of SX-EW capacity resulted in 19% jump in production by Mexico during the month. The output by Chile and Japan witnessed rise of 1% and 3% respectively. On regional basis, refined output by the Americas, Asia and Oceania increased by 5%, 6% and 8% respectively. On the other hand, the refined copper output by African region declined by 13%. The declined output from the region was mainly on account of temporary production cuts in some regions of the DRC and Zambia. The output by European region too witnessed decline of 3.5%.The worldwide refineries reported capacity utilization rate of 83.5%, more or less unchanged from that during the same period a year before.

The world copper mine production has increased by around 6% (nearly 820,000 t) during the initial nine-month period of 2016. Concentrate production was up by 7.5% during the period. The mine output from Peru reported significant improvement of 44%, primarily on account of new and expanded capacities becoming online during the past two years. The recovery in production by Canada, the US and Indonesia and expanded capacity in Mexico also contributed to the sharp recovery in production levels. The production declined by 4% in Chile during the month. The mine output from the DRC too dropped sharply by 7% year-on-year. Region-wise, Asia recorded 9% rise in production. Also Americas recorded 7.0% rise in output. On the other hand, the African region recorded production decline of 4%. The production surged higher by 7% over the previous year in Oceania. The mine output by the European region remained flat during Jan-Sep ‘16. The mine capacity utilization rates increased marginally during the first nine-month period this year to 86% when compared with the rate of 85% a year before.

Meantime, global usage of the metal is estimated to have increased by around 3% during January to September this year in comparison with the year before. The Chinese apparent demand increased sharply by 7%. The usage by world countries excluding China has registered marginal increase of 5%. The European demand rose by 1%, whereas it declined by 11.5% and 4% in Africa and the Americas.

The table given below provides World Refined Copper Supply Trends for the first nine months of the current year:

Note: The above figures are in thousand metric tonnes