Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2016-11-28)

SHANGHAI, Nov. 28 (SMM) – US non-farm employment will be released this week. Market expectations that an agreement on output cut at the OPEC meeting is low. Italy’s constitutional referendum will be held December 4. But given yuan’s devaluation, China’s base metals will remain strong.

US seasonally adjusted non-farm employment added in November will be 180,000, with unemployment rate around 4.9%. Salary per hour may increase. The job market will be important for Fed’s interest rate decision in December. US long-term interest rates have risen recently, with MBA 30-year term fixed mortgage loan rate up to 4.16%.

Yuan’s devaluation has been driving domestic commodities recently. It is also believed stock replenishment has been executed. Two sub-indices including purchase and raw material inventories in China’s PMI will be a focus of markets.

OPEC will meet to discuss output cut issue November 30, and Russia may also participate. Saudi Aramco agreed to supply more oil to some Asian customers in January 2017, meaning Saudi Arabia will unlikely give up any market share.

Base metals will face external pressure this week, and investors should be wary of risks.