WBMS: Global Aluminum and Lead markets in deficit; Copper ends in surplus during Jan-Sep

By Paul Ploumis

SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) has published the Metals Balances Report for the first nine months of the current year. The global primary Aluminum and Lead markets recorded marginal deficits during Jan-Sep ’16. On the other hand, copper market recorded marginal surplus during this period.

The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) has published the Metals Balances Report for the first nine months of the current year. The global primary Aluminum and Lead markets recorded marginal deficits during Jan-Sep ’16. On the other hand, copper market recorded marginal surplus during this period.

Aluminum                                                                                                                                       

The latest report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates that global primary aluminum market has recorded a marginal deficit during the initial nine months of the year. As per the report, the market reported a deficit of 806,000 tons when matched with the deficit of 550,000 reported for the entire year 2015.

The production of primary aluminum has dropped by 560,000 tonnes during the nine-month period from January to September this year. The total reported stock of metal declined by 115,000 tonnes during the month of September this year. The stocks at the end of the initial nine-month period stood at 2,699 kt, which is sufficient to meet 17 days demand. It must be noted that the stock levels at the end of 2015 had stood at 3,787 kt. The combined stocks held in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo exchanges totaled 2,252.0 kt at the end of September, down by 980 kt when matched with end-2015 levels.

Global production fell modestly by 1.30% during the period from January to September in 2016. China, with estimated production of 23,439 kt, accounted for over 55% of the world production. Production in the EU-28 region dropped marginally by 0.5% and the output by NAFTA region fell by 9.6% year-on-year. The primary aluminum production for the month of September alone was 4,880.1 kt, whereas the consumption totaled 4,900.10 kt.

The Chinese net exports of aluminum semis totaled 2,806 kt during the first nine months of the year, when compared with 2,819 kt during Jan-Sep ’15.

The WBMS report also states that the global aluminum demand reduced by 238,000 tonnes during January to September this year to total 43.48 million tonnes, when compared with the corresponding period last year. The Chinese apparent demand was modestly lower by 1.5% when compared with 2015. However, EU-28 demand increased during January to September this year by 270 kt when compared with the previous year.

Copper

The global copper market has recorded a surplus of 124,000 tonnes during January to September this year. It must be noted that the worldwide copper market had reported a surplus of 302,000 tonnes for the entire year 2015.

The global mine production during the period from January to September 255this year totaled 15.15 million tonnes. The mine production has grown by 6.6% when matched with the corresponding nine-month period in 2015. Meantime, global refined copper output jumped higher by 4.3% over the previous year to 17.67 million tonnes. Chinese refined copper output reported significant increase of 466,000 tonnes during this period. Also, refined copper production was up sharply by 16,000 tonnes in Chile during the nine-month period.

The global copper demand during Jan-Sep ’16 stood at 17.55 million tonnes, significantly higher when compared with 16.67 million tonnes during the same period in 2015. The Chinese apparent consumption increased by 571,000 tonnes during this period to total 8.672 million tonnes. The Chinese demand accounted for just over 49% of the global demand. Also, EU-28 apparent consumption increased modestly by 2.8% from Jan-Sep ’15 levels to 2.581 million tonnes.

According to the report, reported stocks of the metal stood higher by 69,000 tonnes during the initial nine-month period of the year when compared with 2015 closing. The stocks rose fractionally during the month of September this year.

The refined copper output during the month of September this year alone was 2,012.4 kt, whereas consumption during the month totaled 2,001.9 kt.

Lead

The global lead market has recorded a deficit of 15,000 tonnes during January to September this year. It must be noted that the worldwide lead market had reported a deficit of 14 kt for the entire year 2015.

The global refined lead output during Jan-Sep ’16 increased by 5.2% over the previous year to 8,034.2 kt. This is inclusive of production from primary and secondary sources.

The global lead demand during Jan-Sep ‘16 has surged higher by 387 kt. The Chinese apparent consumption in January to September 2016 totaled 3,181.2 kt, which is higher by 312.0 kt when matched with the corresponding nine-month period in 2015. The Chinese apparent consumption represented over 39% of the global total. The apparent demand dropped by 34.8 kt in the US.

The reported stocks of the metal at the end of September this year has increased by 13 kt when matched with the stock levels during the end of 2015.

The refined lead production during the month of September ’16 alone totaled 893.2 kt, whereas the consumption totaled 874.0 kt.