Zinc Price Forecast, November 2016: Global Demand to Increase

by Kyle Fitzsimmons on NOVEMBER 18, 2016
The International Lead and Zinc Study Group‘s recent Portugal session revealed global demand for refined zinc metal will increase a little more than a half percent this year, to be followed by a larger increase of 2.1% in the coming year.

In the Far East, China’s renewed demand from the automotive sector will offset the decline in exports of galvanized sheet steel with demand expected to grow 1.8% this year with an additional 1.3% rise expected next year.
The ILZSG report stated: “Usage in Europe has been flat over the past four years and this trend is predicted to continue in 2016 and 2017 with limited growth of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. In the United States, an anticipated fall in apparent consumption of 8.7% this year will be influenced by drawdowns in unreported inventories. However, in 2017 demand is forecast to rebound by 11.8%.”

A Closer Look at Zinc Supply
World zinc mine production is expected to fall 5.6% this year and then recover by 5.9% next year, the ILZSG report also stated. The most significant dropoff this year will come from India, Australia, Ireland and Peru.

Conversely, output is expected to increase in China, Mexico, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.

Lastly, global refined zinc metal output is forecast to drop 3.2% this year, but is expected to rise 2.9% next year due in part to recovery in India, Australia and Mexico.