Lead Price Forecast, November 2016: Supply to Exceed Demand

by Kyle Fitzsimmons on NOVEMBER 17, 2016

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group recently convened in Portugal to deliver its forecast for the coming year, and revealed that global demand for refined lead metal is expected to rise 2.8% this year and 1.3% in 2017.

The report continues: “In China, strong growth in vehicle production and sales have helped to balance declining demand for lead-acid batteries in the e-bike sector where sales of lithium-ion batteries are reported to be rising. It is anticipated that Chinese lead usage will rise by 2.5% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017.”

Furthermore, European usage of lead metal is expected to increase 5.3% this year after declining in 2015. This is due in part to positive performance from the automotive sector. It’s important to add that lead demand in Europe is expected to remain flat next year.

Pertaining to supply, global lead mine supply this year is forecast to be less than a half percent lower than in 2015 with a boost in China offset by other nations, including Australia, Mexico, India and the U.S. In the coming year, global lead output is expected to rise 3.3%.

Global Refined Lead Metal Balance

In closing, the ILZSG report states: “Having taken into account all of the information recently received from its Member Countries, the Group anticipates that in 2016, supply will exceed demand in the global refined lead metal market by 42,000 tonnes. In 2017, an even closer balance is predicted with current data indicating that the market will be in surplus by 23,000 tonnes.”