by Sohrab Darabshaw on OCTOBER 20, 2016

Like steel, there has been some positive news about aluminum consumption in India. A research report said aluminum intake is poised to grow from 3.3 million metric tons in 2015-16 to 5.3 mmt in 2020-21.

The report, “Indian Aluminium Industry: Geared for Growth,” is by global research and ratings agency Crisil and Mtlexs. It forecasts growth based on a combination of government initiatives such as “Make in India,” Smart Cities, Housing for All, and an increase in the transport of freight across the country.

Electrical Power Demand

The analysts say aluminum’s main demand would come from the power sector, since the white metal was now often used as a cost-effective, lightweight substitute for copper in transmission and distribution. In the coming five years, investments from state utilities and central government schemes worth millions of dollars are being planned to expand India’s transmission and distribution network.

The other sector that would drive the uptake is the automotive sector. The tightening of vehicular emission standards has forced automakers to look at aluminum to reduce vehicle fleet weight. India’s automobile sector is poised for heavy growth in the next five years.

As has become the norm, any news of increased consumption is accompanied by a downside: cheap imports. Like producers in the U.S., whose interests are being harmed by China’s exports of semi-finished products, India’s aluminum sector, too, as reported earlier by MetalMiner has been dogged by such imports. In India, imports make up almost 50% of the total consumption, largely from neighboring China. Just between 2011-2016, imports of aluminum increased 14%.

Smelters Want Tariffs

Aluminum majors such as Hindalco, Vedanta and Nalco have been urging the Indian government to impose a Minimum Import Price (MIP) to enable the domestic industry to take on what is being called as a “foreign economic invasion.”

Hindalco’s Managing Director Satish Pai was quoted saying such a government move would help the domestic industry compete with the cheap imports. He was addressing the recentWorld Non-Ferrous Conference 2016.

He said in the last five years, the imports from the ASEAN (free-trade agreement countries including Brunei Darussalam, Myanmar/Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) had increased from 6% of the total refined imports to 31%. The Indian Mines Secretary has indicated that the government is examining the aluminum sector’s demand and would make a decision on the imposition of an MIP in the next 15 days.The Mines Ministry already held several rounds of discussions with aluminum industry leaders.