Peak oil demand is not too far away

Published: Oct 20, 2016 17:43 (GMT+8)
For more than two years the oil industry has suffered through its worst down cycle since the 1980s.

October 20, 2016 01:26:18 AM
SEATTLE (polymers.in):  For more than two years the oil industry has suffered through its worst down cycle since the 1980s.
- According to World Energy Council predicts that global demand for crude oil could hit a peak in 2030 at 103 million bbl/day.  

BP can operate in USD 50 - 60/b oil range next year: Dudley
- BP can now balance the books in 2017 in just south of USD 55/bbl compared to its previous guidance of USD 60/bbl.
- According to Dudley, the market is essentially in balance and as long as oil demand grows at 1 - 1.2 million bbl/day we’re going to see a tightening.  

OPEC Reversal Is Gift to Oil Majors After 2 Years of “Hell”
- After two years of pursuing a Saudi-led strategy to pump without limits, pummeling industry earnings, OPEC unexpectedly come to the aid of the oil majors.
- Brent has climbed as high as USD 53.73/bbl since oil producers announced a preliminary deal in Algiers on September 28. 

Oil rises on dollar and market balance expectations
- Brent crude rose 43 cents or 0.8% to USD 51.95/bbl.
- US WTI crude was up 49 cents, close to 1% at USD 50.43/bbl.
- Global oil inventories increased by 17 million bbl to 5.168 billion bbl in Q3 2016.  

Saudi Arabia Says Oil at USD 50 - 60 Ensures Adequate Global Supply
- Officials from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, key protagonists in shaping OPEC policy, said oil at USD 50 to USD 60/bbl.
- Brent crude is up about 13% since the OPEC reached a deal September 28 to manage supply.  

Former OPEC Official Says Reaching Oil Production Agreement Is Difficult
- OPEC agreed during its the 15th IEA in Algiers to reduce its oil output to 32.5 million bbl/day.

Feedstock (Ethane, Ethylene, Propane, Propylene, PX, PTA, MEG, EDC, VCM)
Japan's naphtha imports for petrochemical fell 34% in September 16 vs Sept 15
- Japan’s naphtha imports for the petrochemical sector fell 34% in September 2016.
- Imports of naphtha for ethylene production totaled 0.87% million tons in September 16, down from 1.31 million tons in September 15.  

China PTA market enters attrition war as end-users buy local USD cargoes
- China’s PTA market is seeing a war of attrition as local producers fiercely compete with imported material to preserve their market share.
- CFR CMP prices have been on a gradual upward trend since 1 Sept, climbing USD 10/MT to USD 610/MT CFR CMP on 14 October.  

China's propylene supply to increase from H2 Oct on new start-ups
- Wanhua Chemical’s 750,000 MT/year PDH plant in Shandong is due to restart on around 20 October from a turnaround of more than 20 days.
- Haiwei Group is said to have resumed operations at its 500,000 MT/year PDH unit in Hebei on 9 October following several days of unplanned outage.  

Sentiment drives US ethylene volatility, overall plunge
- US ethylene spot prices were volatile this week.
- Spot prices began slipping once again, but values plunged by 11% on Thursday as news emerged of a fire at a styrene plant in Lake Charles, Louisiana. 

Polymers Demand
Anger Grows In The US Over Lost Economic Opportunities
- As the boomers reached working age in the 1960s and 1970s they increased US labor supply, leading to a surge in economic growth and higher interest rates in response to higher inflation.
- Demand received a further boost from greater numbers of women joining the workforce for the first time.  

India PVC importers to grapple with higher November offers
- India’s spot PVC import prices were assessed at USD 925 - 950/MT CFR.
- Buyers in India are expected an increase in offers, maybe about USD 10 - 20/MT, but USD 40/MT was quite unexpected. 

Russia's Kazanorgsintez resumes HDPE production following turnaround
- Kazanorgsintez is in the process of resuming production of HDPE after scheduled maintenance works.
- The plant’s annual production capacity is 540,000 MT.

Courtesy: www.polymers.io

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Vedanta Eyes $2.3B Copper Expansion, Tuticorin Smelter Restart
2 hours ago
Vedanta Eyes $2.3B Copper Expansion, Tuticorin Smelter Restart
Read More
Vedanta Eyes $2.3B Copper Expansion, Tuticorin Smelter Restart
Vedanta Eyes $2.3B Copper Expansion, Tuticorin Smelter Restart
Vedanta Copper targets 1 million tonnes/year of copper production across India and Saudi Arabia by the end of the decade, with a proposed Tuticorin smelter restart central to its domestic expansion plans.
2 hours ago
【Flash | Adanac Technical Report Outlines Long-Life Primary Molybdenum Supply】
4 hours ago
【Flash | Adanac Technical Report Outlines Long-Life Primary Molybdenum Supply】
Read More
【Flash | Adanac Technical Report Outlines Long-Life Primary Molybdenum Supply】
【Flash | Adanac Technical Report Outlines Long-Life Primary Molybdenum Supply】
EraNova Metals filed an NI 43-101 PEA technical report for its 100%-owned Adanac molybdenum project in Canada. The report confirms the August 6 results without material differences. The proposed 30,000-tpd operation has a 24-year mine life and targets average annual molybdenum output of 11.4 million lb (about 5,171 tonnes), with 270.1 million lb (about 122,515 tonnes) of payable molybdenum over the mine life. Initial capital is estimated at C$953.3 million. EraNova plans to initiate a feasibility study and advance environmental assessment and permitting. The PEA remains preliminary, with no final investment decision or production schedule.
4 hours ago
【Flash | Malmbjerg Field Work Advances Detailed Engineering and Procurement】
5 hours ago
【Flash | Malmbjerg Field Work Advances Detailed Engineering and Procurement】
Read More
【Flash | Malmbjerg Field Work Advances Detailed Engineering and Procurement】
【Flash | Malmbjerg Field Work Advances Detailed Engineering and Procurement】
Greenland Resources completed its expanded summer field program at the Malmbjerg molybdenum project. Work covered infrastructure surveys, glacier investigations, RopeCon optimisation and geotechnical inspections. The team also collected 8 tonnes of drill core and 14 tonnes of saline and fresh water for government-supported metallurgical pilot testing. Results will support detailed engineering, key-equipment procurement and construction contracts. On a 100% basis, the feasibility study targets average output of 32.8 million lb (about 14,878 tonnes) of contained molybdenum annually during the first ten years. This remains planned capacity; no final investment or construction decision was announced.
5 hours ago
Peak oil demand is not too far away - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)