Term Copper Concentrate TCs for Chinese Buyers to Reach $100 in 2017 on Rising Supply, SMM Says

Published: Oct 12, 2016 11:08

Save

Term TCs of copper concentrate signed between Chinese buyers and overseas copper mines are expected to reach $100 per tonne mark in 2017 due to growing copper ore supply worldwide, SMM foresees.

SHANGHAI, Oct. 12 (SMM) - Term TCs of copper concentrate signed between Chinese buyers and overseas copper mines are expected to reach $100 per tonne mark in 2017 due to growing copper ore supply worldwide, SMM foresees.

Copper prices weakened this year but still found support from 35,000 yuan per tonne, SMM says. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened, precipitating depreciation of non-US dollar currencies and helping reduce cost at mines. Most overseas copper mines thus maintained production. New capacities at mines in Peru also added to global copper ore supply.

Combined copper output in Chile and Peru rose 6.45% year-on-year during the first eight months of this year, the second highest for the year, according to official data from the two countries.

Chile’s copper output added 3.1% year-on-year to 455,000 tonnes in August after falling for four months in a row, Chilean government reported. The country’s copper output in August 2015 was the second lowest for the year. Copper output during January-August 2016 decreased 4.27% year-on-year to 3.68 million tonnes, though, due mainly to lower ore grade.

Copper output in Peru increased 32% year-on-year to 207,000 tonnes in August, after the growth had slowed for two straight months, according to official data. The country’s copper output in the first eight months of the year increased 45.53% year-on-year.

In China, average weekly TCs of spot copper concentrate stayed around $102.5 per tonne level since mid-June, according to SMM data. Spot TCs averaged $94.9 per tonne as of September 30, compared to $94.4 per tonne in the same period of last year.

Of the 12 major Chinese copper smelters, only 2 incurred losses, according to their semiannual reports.

SMM understands Chinese copper smelters have mostly built sufficient stocks for production in Q4, so their demand for spot copper concentrate will be soft in the near term.

Moreover, the China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) set floor price for term TCs in Q4 at $105 per tonne, compared to $103 per tonne in Q3. All these factors will drive up term TCs of copper concentrate in 2017, SMM added.

For news cooperation, please contact us by email: sallyzhang@smm.cn or service.en@smm.cn.

copper concentrate TCs copper output

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

14 mins ago

A weakening US dollar supported copper prices, and overnight copper prices drifted higher [SMM copper morning comment]

14 mins ago

9 hours ago

US Copper Tariff Delay Disrupts Global Market, Boosts Domestic Stockpile Amid Trade Uncertainty

The ongoing delay by the White House on potential refined copper import tariffs under President Donald Trump is accelerating structural dislocations across the global physical copper market. Although the statutory timeline for U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to deliver a recommendation has lapsed without a public ruling, the regulatory ambiguity itself has become a primary driver of global trade dynamics. By keeping the tariff threat active, the U.S. has sustained an elevated delivery premium that continues to incentivize aggressive physical inflows into American ports. Over the past 18 months, this mechanism has allowed the country to build a substantial domestic stockpile of a critical metal essential to both green energy transition and advanced technology sectors. However, this deliberate accumulation has come at the direct expense of liquidity in non-U.S. markets. Physical metal is being systematically diverted away from international hubs, driving rapid inventory drawdowns across both London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses. As regional pricing premiums widen and trade flows skew disproportionately toward the United States, prolonged tariff uncertainty risks transforming temporary arbitrage plays into a permanent, structural fracture in the global copper market.

9 hours ago

11 hours ago

Full Suspension of Mining, Beneficiation and Tailings Systems at Yinman Mining; Impact on Production of Tin, Silver and Other Metals to Be Assessed

At around 15:30 on July 26, a safety incident occurred during production and construction at the underground Area 3 of Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xingye Silver&Tin, resulting in one fatality and no other injuries. On July 28, Xingye Silver&Tin announced for the first time that the underground mining areas of Yinman Mining had been suspended, while the beneficiation plant remained in normal operation. At that time, Yinman Mining had approximately 350,000 mt of surface ore, which was expected to support the beneficiation plant's production for about two and a half months. On July 30, Yinman Mining further received an "On-site Disposition Decision" (Xi) Yingji Xianjue [2026] No. 260 issued by the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the simultaneous suspension of the beneficiation and tailings systems. As of the announcement disclosure, Yinman Mining's mining system, beneficiation and tailings systems had all been suspended. The previous plan to sustain beneficiation production using ore inventory could no longer be implemented, directly impacting mineral product production. Yinman Mining has an existing mining and beneficiation capacity of 1.65 million mt per year and is the core tin-silver mine under Xingye Silver&Tin. Xingye Silver&Tin did not separately disclose Yinman Mining's actual copper metal production in 2025. According to the original project design, Yinman Mining's copper concentrates contain approximately 1,100 mt of copper metal per year; Xingye Silver&Tin's consolidated mine-produced copper output in 2025 was 2,380.89 mt. As Yinman Mining's copper production scale is relatively small, this suspension will have limited impact on China's overall supply of copper concentrates, with the impact expected to be mainly concentrated on products such as tin and silver. Going forward, attention needs to be paid to the progress of accident investigation, tailings system rectification, and production resumption acceptance.

11 hours ago