China Refined Copper Output Misses Forecast in September on Unit Maintenance, SMM Reports

SHANGHAI, Oct. 12 (SMM) – Output of refined copper at China’s major copper smelters missed forecast in September, SMM survey finds.

According to SMM data, output of refined copper was 650,000 tonnes in September, up 0.78% month-on-month, and up 3.17% year-on-year, coming below the forecast of 662,000 tonnes. Output from January to September totaled 5.77 million tonnes, up 5.74% year-on-year.

The lower-than-expected output in September was due mainly to unit maintenance at Dongying Fangyuan Nonferrous Metals and Fuye Group. Jiangtong Fuye Heding Copper, a subsidiary of Fuye Group, made no products in September.

SMM survey finds that some SMEs secondary copper smelters in China have been running at low utilization rates due to environment protection inspections, slim profits and cash tightness, and some even have cut or suspended production. 

SMM expects refined copper production to reach 668,000 tonnes in October, with January-to-October growth estimated at 5.51% year-on-year. The forecast is mainly based on production resumption at the two smelters mentioned above and gradual output growth at Shandong Humon Smelting, which saw products from its 120,000-tonne expansion project in September. Moreover, the China Smelter Purchasing Team (CSPT) held a meeting in late September and set the floor price for spot copper concentrates at $105 per tonne in Q4, and most of smelters said to keep running at high rates due to high TCs during Q4. 

Unit: 1,000 tonne

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