SHFE Lead to Stay Range-Bound (2016-8-29)

The power rationing in Yunnan, Henan, and Hunan since July-August and the power rationing in Jiangxi and Guangxi in September are undoubtedly the current hot spots. According to a recent SMM survey, the power rationing in Jiangsu, Guangdong and other regions in China has continued. Since late September, the social inventory of lead ingots has declined due to the combined effects of losses, power rationing and environmental protection.

LME lead will fluctuate at highs between USD 2,460-2,490/mt today.

Motive battery supply is tight in China's market and will ease in mid and late June.

Average operating rate at surveyed 51 Chinese lead-acid battery producers was 62.12% in March, up 3.35 percentage points MoM but down 4.41 percentage points YoY.

SHFE 1702 lead started at RMB 18,800/mt and finally ended at RMB 18,780/mt, up RMB 315/mt or 1.71%.

SHFE 1611 lead started at RMB 14,445/mt and ended down RMB 110/mt or 0.76% at RMB 14,440/mt with a session high of RMB 14,525/mt and a session low of RMB 14,335/mt.

LME lead should move at USD 1,905-1,925/mt on Monday and SHFE 1611 lead is predicted to range between RMB 14,350-14,550/mt.

SHFE 1610 lead started at RMB 13,965/mt and ended at RMB 14,420/mt, up RMB 550/mt or 3.97%.

SMM survey of 30 Chinese lead smelters reveals that 33% of them see LME lead to drop below USD 1,843/mt this week and SHFE 1610 lead to fall below RMB 13,500/mt and test the 60-day moving average.

SHFE 1610 lead started at RMB 13,945/mt and ended at RMB 13,960/mt, up RMB 10/mt or 0.07%.