Gold Miners Below 50-day MA; Time to Buy? – Technical Analyst

Tuesday August 23, 2016 15:15

(Kitco News) - Gold miners continue to struggle since late last week, with the GDX now dipping below its 50-day moving average. However, according to one technical analyst, this just might be what investors need.

“If you’re looking to buy [gold miners], maybe wait for a test of that 50-day moving average,” said Jonathan Krinsky of MKM Partners on CNBC Tuesday. He added that the Gold Miners ETF Market Vectors (GDX) hasn’t tested its 50-day MA – around $29.40 – since May, which means it would likely test that level.

And, since last Thursday, GDX has been below that key technical metric, last trading down 1.02 % at $29.16. Is it time to buy?

“Typically in a bull market in precious metals, you will see equities outperform the commodity and that’s what we’ve seen for the most part of this year,” he explained. “As long as the ratio between GDX versus SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) keeps moving higher and the trend remains up, then investors should be fine.”

However, one analyst that appeared alongside Krinsky on CNBC wasn’t as bullish on gold stocks.

Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager for Stifel Nicolaus, said he isn’t a “buyer of gold miners.”

“I would actually recommend that investors go and buy gold and they can do that through an ETF,” he said. “Our expectation for gold is roughly about 4-6% total return over the course of the next 3 quarters. Our long term forecast for returns for gold is about 5%.”

The reason why Morganlander is a little more optimistic on gold is because the metal is not subject to “individual equity risk” like the miners are, he explained.