3% Chinese Market Players Optimistic toward Nickel, SMM Surveys

Published: Aug 23, 2016 10:25 (GMT+8)

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SMM surveyed 30 market participants to find that 1 are bullish toward nickel price this week, 13 are neutral and 16 are bearish.

SHANGHAI, Aug. 23 (SMM) – SMM surveyed 30 market participants to find that 1 are bullish toward nickel price this week, 13 are neutral and 16 are bearish.

The bullish one expects LME nickel to rise to USD 10,400-10,600/mt this week. January nickel on the SHFE should fluctuate between RMB 82,000-83,500/mt, and spot nickel in China is expected to rise to RMB 80,000-81,500/mt. High-grade NPI lost price advantage over refined nickel, and nickel ore inventories at the seven China’s ports fell on a weekly basis, which will bolster spot nickel in China.

About 44% are neutral, seeing LME nickel hover between USD 10,200-10,400/mt. SHFE 1701 nickel will fluctuate between RMB 80,500-82,000/mt. Spot nickel in China is expected to range between RMB 78,800-80,000/mt. Fed vice chairman’s hawkish statement drove up the US dollar index, though the index remained below 95. Crude oil rose to a high, but lacks support from fundamentals. Prices for medium and high-grade NPI weakened recently, dampening purchases by NPI plants. Ore traders held quotes firm due to market optimism. It was reported environmental protection inspections in the Philippines will come to an end by the month-end. No mine was heard to shut down last week. Trading improved after spot nickel fell, and will support prices.

About 53% are bearish, expecting LME nickel to fluctuate between USD 10,000-10,200/mt. SHFE 1701 nickel should fall to RMB 79,000-80,500/mt, and spot nickel will fall to RMB 77,800-78,800/mt. The second largest nickel mine in the Philippines passed environmental protection inspections, helping ease market expectations of ore supply tightness. NPI producers restarted, and demand for stainless steel was soft. Some small and medium #200 stainless steel plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were affected due to the upcoming G20 Summit in Hangzhou. But output declines at these plants were offset by output growth at other steel plants. So prices should fall this week. Profit from #300 stainless steel is still high. Distributors lowered their quotes to promote sales.

LME nickel prices SHFE nickel prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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