LME Lead to Move in a Tight Range (2016-8-15)

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 13 Jul , 2026

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM data shows Shanghai social inventory at 85,600 mt, down 19,200 mt WoW from last Thursday, and Jiangsu social inventory at 26,400 mt, down 4,600 mt WoW, indicating rapid destocking. Social inventory has fallen by approximately 60,000 mt over the past two weeks, keeping available spot cargoes persistently tight. According to SMM, the arrival of domestic spot cargoes at some warehouses has remained low, limiting supply-side growth. The backwardation price spread between monthly contracts significantly widened to 200 yuan/mt, leading to higher costs for warehouse warrant transfers and somewhat boosting suppliers’ willingness to sell, but the sentiment to hold prices firm remains. The import window is wide open, but given logistics and customs clearance delays, near-term spot market replenishment will remain limited. In summary, driven by rapid destocking, a widening backwardation structure, and firm supplier pricing, SHFE spot copper is expected to maintain a premium against the 2607 contract tomorrow.