ICSG Copper Bulletin: Refined copper market records deficit during Jan- Apr

By Paul Ploumis (ScrapMonster Author)

July 21, 2016 12:41:03 AM

SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for the month of April this year in its July 2016 Copper Bulletin. According to preliminary ICSG data, copper production and usage data points to an apparent production deficit of nearly 110,000 metric tonnes.

The refined copper market balance for the month of April ‘16 showed an apparent production deficit of nearly 110,000 metric tonnes. The production deficit for the month, after making seasonal adjustments for global refined copper production and usage, stood at 32,000 metric tonnes. The refined copper balance for the first four-month period of the year ended in production surplus of around 119,000 metric tonnes as compared with a surplus of around 13,000 tonnes during the same period in 2015.

World refined production increased by nearly 4.5% (nearly 330,000 t) during the first four months of 2016 in comparison with the corresponding four-month period from January to April last year. Primary production was up 4%, whereas the secondary production was up by 5.5%. The refined copper production during the month witnessed significant growth of 8% in  China. The production by the US witnessed an increase of 18%. The output by Chile and Japan witnessed rise of 5% each. The other regions to report rise in refined output were the Americas (7%), Asia (4.5%) and Oceania (14%). On the other hand, the refined copper output by African region declined by 15%. The declined output from the region was mainly on account of temporary production cuts in some regions of the DRC and Zambia. The output by European region too witnessed decline of 3%.The capacity utilization rate of refineries increased marginally from 82% in Jan-Apr ’15 to 85% during the first four months of the current year.

The world copper mine production has increased by around 4.0% (nearly 260,000 t) during the initial four-month period of 2016. Concentrate production was up by 5.0% during the period. The mine output from Peru reported significant improvement of 51%, primarily due to new and expanded capacities that has come online during the past two years. The recovery in production by Canada, the US and Mongolia and expanded capacity in Mexico also contributed to the sharp recovery in production levels. The production declined by 4% in Chile during the month. The mine output from the DRC too dropped sharply by 13% year-on-year. Region-wise, Asia recorded 4.5% rise in production. Also Americas recorded 7.0% rise in output. On the other hand, the Africa and the Oceania regions recorded production decline of 5% and 1.0% respectively. The mine output by the European region remained flat during Jan-Apr ‘16. The mine capacity utilization rates remained essentially unchanged during the first four-month period this year when compared with the year-ago period.

Meantime, global usage of the metal is estimated to have increased by around 6% during January to April this year in comparison with the year before. The Chinese apparent demand increased sharply by 14%. The usage by world countries excluding China has dropped by 1.0%. The European demand rose by 6%, whereas it declined by 20% and 4.5% in Africa and the Americas.

The table given below provides World Refined Copper Supply Trends for the first four months of the current year:

Note: The above figures are in thousand metric tonnes