SHANGHAI, Jul. 19 (SMM) – SMM’s survey of major Chinese tin smelters over their opinions on this week’s price outlook shows the following results.
About 50% of them expect spot tin in Shanghai to fall back to RMB 115,000-117,000/mt, citing poor demand in the off-season and weak tin futures prices. Recoup in Turkey and terrorist attack in France will intensify risk aversion. LME tin failed in many attempts to break through USD 18,200/mt and will test support at USD 17,500/mt. Capital began pulling out of domestic commodity market. SHFE 1609 tin will fall below RMB 115,000/mt.
Another 35% expect spot tin in Shanghai to stabilize at RMB 116,500-118,500/mt. Despite recent “black swan” events, market sentiment has been relatively stable. The US dollar index has been range-bound recently. With limited macro events to take place this week, LME and SHFE tin will not see big swing. SHFE 1609 tin will consolidate at RMB 117,000-119,500/mt and LME tin will move at USD 17,800-18,000/mt.
The rest 15% are bullish that spot tin in Shanghai will rise to RMB 117,000-119,000/mt. Tin smelters in major producing regions, including Yunnan, Guangxi, Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia, will be subject to a new round of environmental protection inspections, which will affect tin production there. LME tin will challenge USD 18,200/mt and SHFE 1609 tin will challenge RMB 120,500/mt