SHANGHAI, Jun. 21 (SMM) – SMM surveyed 44 Chinese aluminum smelters about their opinions over aluminum price outlook.

See SMM forecast, please click: Aluminum Prices to Stay Weak as Negative Factors Outweigh Positive Ones

About 45% of them expect SHFE 1608 aluminum to rise above RMB 12,100/mt and LME aluminum break through USD 1,620/mt. First, aluminum stocks in China’s five major markets fell 25,000 mt to 381,000 mt as of Monday. Second, limited supply of aluminum ingots with invoice dated June will allow suppliers to hold offers firm. 

Another 37% expect SHFE 1608 aluminum to stabilize at RMB 11,900-12,100/mt and LME aluminum hold stable at USD 1,590-1,620/mt. First, latest poll results show the number of British people in favor of staying in the EU is almost equal to those who are against. Commodity will face selloffs and the US dollar will gain favor if the UK leaves the EU. The US dollar will soften if the UK remains in the EU. Second, SHFE aluminum will face selling pressure from smelters for hedging purpose and speculators at around RMB 12,000/mt mark.       

The 18% are bearish that SHFE 1608 aluminum will fall below RMB 11,900/mt and LME aluminum will drop below USD 1,590/mt. First, the off-season has arrived earlier than in years past. Many aluminum processors said orders fell sharply in June. Second, output release from new and restarted aluminum capacity will add to supply pressure.