WBMS Metals Balances Report-Q1 2016 suggests surplus for Copper, Lead and Aluminum

By Paul Ploumis (ScrapMonster Author)

May 19, 2016 06:52:14 AM

SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) has published the Metals Balances Report for the first quarter of the current year. The global primary aluminum market remained almost balanced with slight surplus during Jan-Mar ’16. On the other hand, Copper and Lead markets recorded surplus during the initial three-month period of the year.

Aluminum

The latest report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates that global primary aluminum market has recorded a marginal surplus during the initial three months of the year. As per the report, the market reported a surplus of 48,000 tons when matched with the deficit of 308,000 reported during entire year 2015.

The production of primary aluminum has dropped by 656,000 tonnes during the three-month period from January to March this year. The total reported stock of metal increased by 17,000 tonnes during the month of March. The stocks at the end of the initial three-month period stood at 3,653 kt, which is sufficient to meet 23 days demand. It must be noted that the stock levels at the end of 2015 had stood at 3,787 kt. The combined stocks held in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo exchanges totaled 3,146 kt at the end of March, down by 87 kt when matched with end-2015 levels.

Global production fell modestly by 4.7% during the period from January to March in 2016. China, with estimated production of 6,821 kt, accounted for more than 51% of the world production. Production in the EU-28 region rose by 2.7% and the output by NAFTA region fell by 2.9% year-on-year. The primary aluminum production for the month of March alone was 4,451.9 kt, whereas the consumption totaled 4,417.9 kt.

The Chinese net exports of aluminum semis totaled 948 kt during the first three months of the year, when compared with 1,098 kt during Jan-Mar ’15.

The WBMS report also states that the global aluminum demand dropped by 4.8% during January to March this year to total 13.28 million tonnes, when compared with the corresponding period last year. The Chinese apparent demand reduced by almost 9.3% when compared with 2015. Also, EU-28 demand dropped during January to March this year by 95 kt when compared with the previous year.

Copper

The global copper market has recorded a surplus of 77,000 tonnes during January to March this year. It must be noted that the worldwide copper market had reported a surplus of 463,000 tonnes for the entire year 2015.

The global mine production during the period from January to March this year totaled 4.85 million tonnes. The mine production has grown by 5.2% when matched with the corresponding three-month period in 2015. Meantime, global refined copper output jumped higher by 3.2% over the previous year to 5.76 million tonnes. Chinese refined copper output reported significant increase of 79,000 tonnes during this period. Also, refined copper production was up sharply by 32,000 tonnes in Chile during the three-month period.

The global copper demand during Jan-Mar ’16 stood at 5,683 kt, significantly higher when compared with 5,313 kt during the same period in 2015. The Chinese apparent consumption increased by 293,000 tonnes during this period to total 2.760 million tonnes. The Chinese demand accounted for nearly 49% of the global demand. Also, EU-28 apparent consumption increased sharply by 13.8% from Jan-Mar ’15 levels to 899, 0000 tonnes.

According to the report, reported stocks of the metal stood higher by 52,000 tonnes during the initial three-month period of the year when compared with 2015 closing.

The refined copper output during the month of March this year alone was 1,924.10 kt, whereas consumption during the month totaled 1,969.50 kt.

Lead

The global lead market has recorded a surplus of 8,500 tonnes during January to March this year. It must be noted that the worldwide lead market had reported a deficit of 6.5 kt for the entire year 2015.

The global refined lead output during Jan-Mar ’16 increased marginally by 0.6% over the previous year to 2,516 kt. This is inclusive of production from primary and secondary sources.

The global lead demand during Jan-Mar ‘16 has surged higher by 12kt. The Chinese apparent consumption in January to March 2016 totaled 910 kt, which is marginally lower by 38 kt when matched with the corresponding three-month period in 2015. The Chinese apparent consumption represented over 36% of the global total. The apparent demand increased by 1 kt in the US.

The reported stocks of the metal at the end of March this year has dropped by 28 kt when matched with the stock levels during the end of 2015.

The refined lead production during the month of Mar ’16 alone totaled 835.2 kt, whereas the consumption totaled 842.2 kt.