World copper market to remain balanced in 2016 and 2017

By Paul Ploumis (ScrapMonster Author)

May 18, 2016 01:00:00 PM

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) in its short-term forecast of copper market has stated that global refined copper market is likely to remain broadly balanced in 2016/2017. A similar view was recently expressed by the Statistical Committee of the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).

IWCC Forecasts

The refined copper production in 2016 is expected to total 21.97 million tonnes, marginally higher by 0.2% when compared with the 2015 production. Also, the refined copper output is predicted to increase further by 1.7% in 2017 to 22.3498 million tonnes, in comparison with 2016.

The IWCC half-yearly report predicts that copper mine production is likely to total 18.935 million tonnes in 2016. The mine output will rise further by 3.4% in 2017 to 19.572 million tonnes.

The global refined copper demand is expected to increase marginally by 1.5% to 22.038 million tonnes in 2016. The demand is likely to increase further by 1.8% to 22.436 million tonnes in 2017.

The demand for refined copper is expected to improve slightly in major consuming nations including China, Japan, EU-28 countries and the USA. The Chinese demand is expected to go higher by 2.5% to 10.34 million tonnes during next year. The country’s refined copper demand is expected to rise further by 2.2% in 2017 to 10.57 million tonnes. Japn will also report slight demand improvement of 0.5% to 1.002 million tonnes in 2016. However, the demand is likely to remain stable in the country during 2017. The report forecasts marginal increase of 0.3% in refined copper demand by EU-28 region to 3.157 million tonnes in 2016. The demand is projected to grow by the same percentage in 2017 to 3.168 million tonnes. The US will report demand growth of 2.2% each in 2016 and 2017. The demand is likely to total 1.82 million tonnes and 1.86 million tonnes in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

On the basis of the projected supply and demand statistics, global refined copper market is expected to remain essentially balanced in 2016 and 2017.

ICSG Copper Market Forecast

In its latest Copper Market Forecast 2016-2017, ICSG states that copper markets worldwide are likely to remain more or less balanced in 2016 and 2017. It must be noted that the earlier forecast report had predicted a deficit of 127,000 tonnes for 2016 and a surplus of 175,000 tonnes for 2017. Anticipated delay in project execution and weakness in global economy has forced the copper body to make downward revisions in production and usage forecasts.

According to ICSG, the world mine production is expected to increase by around 1.5% to reach 19.4 million tonnes in 2016. ICSG predicts higher global copper mine production growth of nearly 2.3% in 2017. It must be noted that the world mine production had registered a growth of 3.5% in 2015.

The world refined copper production is expected to increase marginally by 0.5% in 2016 to 23 million tonnes. The 3% growth in primary refined output will be compensated by 1% decline in secondary production and 8% decline in SX/EW output. In 2017, the world refined production is expected to grow by 2%. The biggest contributor to growth in both the years will be China, says ICSG.

The world apparent refined copper usage is expected to remain flat in 2016, but may grow by 1.8% in 2017, backed by higher industrial demand growth in China and rest of the world.

About IWCC

The International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) is a trade association for the copper fabricating industry. The IWCC Joint Statistical Committee prepares regular supply and demand forecasts for unwrought copper. To assist the work of the Committee, the Secretariat continues to assemble forecasts from all of the major copper producing and consuming countries throughout the world.

About ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) was established in 1992 in order to promote international co-operation on issues concerning copper by improving the information available on the international copper economy and by providing a forum for intergovernmental consultations on copper. The ICSG maintains one of the world's most complete historical and current database providing access to production, consumption and trade data for copper, copper products and secondary copper, price series, and information on copper mines and plants.