SHANGHAI, May 17 (SMM) – Those pessimists cited several negative factors.
First, LME tin stocks grew over 500 mt recently. LME tin has lost support at the 60-day moving average and will head down for USD 16,500/mt. Second, technical side suggests that SHFE 1609 tin will fall further to RMB 104,000-106,500/mt. Third, at least 1,500 mt of deliverable tin will flow into Shanghai spot market, which will drag spot prices down to RMB 106,000-109,500/mt.
Another 20% expect tin prices to move in wide range. SHFE 1609 tin lost RMB 3,860/mt last week, while the low-end spot price in Shanghai market was just RMB 107,500/mt as smelters held back goods to support prices. Falling SHFE tin drove buyers to the sidelines. SHFE 1609 tin will fluctuate at RMB 106,500-109,000/mt, and spot prices in Shanghai will be RMB 108,500-111,000/mt, versus USD 16,650-16,800/mt for LME tin.
The rest 10% expect tin prices to rise. Facilities at Yunnan Tin Group remain under maintenance at present. Smelters have growing difficulty in souring raw materials. Higher raw material costs will force smelters to sell at higher prices. Tin supply is tight in Shanghai. As such, spot tin in Shanghai will rise to RMB 110,000-112,000/mt and SHFE 1609 tin will rise to RMB 109,000-112,000/mt. Crude oil refreshed recent high and hit USD 47.84/bbl, which will allow LME tin to rise to USD 16,850-17,000/mt.