SHANGHAI, May 10 (SMM) – SMM surveyed 30 market players to find that 6 are bullish, 12 are neutral and 12 are bearish.
The 20% see LME nickel rise to USD 9,000-9,200/mt. crude oil prices rebounded, bolstering base metals. Recent economic indicators from China show Chinese economy stabilizes. Domestic stainless steel demand is still strong. When combined with nickel ore and NPI tightness, nickel prices will find some support. SHFE 1609 nickel is expected to rise to RMB 71,000-72,000/mt.
About 40% are neutral, seeing LME nickel hover between USD 8,750-9,000/mt. US economic data released recently were disappointing, especially non-farm employment data. The likelihood of a Fed rate hike in June decreased. The US dollar index will have limited room to rise further. China’s import and exports data decreased in April. But downstream buying interest improved after nickel prices slumped, especially NPI supply tightness will help nickel prices stabilize. SHFE 1609 nickel is expected to hover between RMB 69,000-71,000/mt.
About 40% are bearish, expecting LME nickel to fall to USD 8,500-8,750/mt. the likely UK exit from the EU in June will weaken the pound whilst pushing up the US dollar index. Yuan depreciated recently. The improvement in China’s property market will unlikely sustain. Slumping ferrous metals turned market players bearish toward nickel. Overseas nickel producers ramped up production, also weighing down nickel prices. Meanwhile, global nickel inventories continued to climb, with nickel surplus in China. SHFE 1609 nickel should drop to RMB 67,500-69,000/mt.