SHFE Lead to Lack Rising Strength (2016-5-9)

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Flash] China's social inventory of cast aluminum alloy ingots recorded 34,100 mt this week, up 1,100 mt WoW, marking the fifth consecutive week of inventory buildup. The traditional peak consumption season is gradually kicking off, but end-use demand improvement remains limited, with downstream purchases still mainly need-based and inventory digestion relatively slow. Meanwhile, purchases by some futures and spot traders and trade links continue to provide some support to social inventory. In the short term, as demand from the September peak season is gradually released, the pace of social inventory buildup may narrow, but the inventory inflection point still awaits further demand realization.

[Low inventory supports aluminum prices to consolidate at highs; peak-season recovery pace awaits verification] Overall, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term.

[SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment: ADC12's new high momentum slows down, aluminum scrap follows the rise] Yesterday, the ADC12 market held up well overall, with SMM ADC12 prices rising by 100 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,450 yuan/mt. The price adjustment momentum mainly came from two aspects: first, cost support strengthened, as raw material prices stayed high and tax invoice policies tightened in some regions, enterprises' overall cost pressure continued to rise; second, demand improved marginally, with market orders recovering somewhat from the earlier period, but the extent was limited, and the demand boost was moderate. Overall, the industry remains in a pattern driven mainly by costs, supplemented by mild demand recovery. Enterprises' willingness to hold prices firm has increased somewhat, but room for further price rises still depends on the actual realization of peak-season demand later on.