SHANGHAI, May 4 (SMM) – About 40% of Chinese tin smelters surveyed by SMM expect tin prices to stabilize this week.
Those neutral smelters see spot tin in Shanghai stabilizing at RMB 110,000-112,000/mt. Price spread is narrowing among different brands in spot market. Demand is soft in spot market. Poor China April official manufacturing PMI and recent pullback in ferrous metals prices will keep SHFE 1609 tin in check at RMB 110,000-112,000/mt. LME tin will find support from a weak dollar, but lacks rising momentum, and will stabilize at USD 17,000-17,400/mt.
Another 35% expect spot tin in Shanghai to rise to RMB 111,500-113,000/mt. Delivery date of SHFE 1605 tin is nearing, but many longs on the contract have yet to find the right moment to pull out. Rising SHFE 1605 tin will push SHFE 1609 tin up to RMB 111,500-113,000/mt. Yunnan Tin Group began unit maintenance. Smelters and traders will show low selling interest before delivery of SHFE 1605 tin, which will offer rising impetus to spot prices. A weak dollar will allow LME tin to hold firm at USD 17,100-17,500/mt.
The rest 25% are bearish that spot tin prices in Shanghai will fall to RMB 108,000-110,000/mt, citing worries over demand in sot market. LME tin will face downward correction after continuous gains, and move at USD 16,750-17,000/mt. SHFE 1607 tin will drop to RMB 107,500-110,000/mt.