SHANGHAI, Apr. 19 (SMM) – About 50% of Chinese tin smelters surveyed by SMM expect tin prices to fall this week.
Those pessimists see spot tin in Shanghai falling to RMB 109,500-111,000/mt. First, tumbling crude oil following disappointing Doha meeting will drag LME tin down to USD 16,700/mt. Second, SHFE 1605 tin has fallen below the 5-day moving average. Should LME tin drop, SHFE 1605 tin will fall to RMB 108,000/mt, with resistance at RMB 112,000/mt. Despite tight tin ore supply, most tin smelters said their production was little affected. Downstream producers will buy only as needed. Spot prices will be subject mainly to movement in SHFE tin.
Another 35% expect spot tin in Shanghai to stabilize at RMB 110,500-111,500/mt. Despite mixed US economic data and disappointing Doha oil meeting, LME tin will be little changed and should fluctuate at USD 17,000-17,250/mt. Once-a-year maintenance at Yunnan Tin Group and tight tin ore supply will support SHFE 1605 tin at RMB 110,000-113,000/mt. Limited supply due to smelters holding back goods will allow spot prices in Shanghai market to stabilize at RMB 110,500-111,500/mt.
The rest 15% are bullish that spot tin prices in Shanghai will rise to RMB 111,000-113,000/mt. A weaker US dollar will allow LME tin to challenge resistance at USD 17,300/mt. Recent fall in SHFE 1605 tin is just temporary correction, and prices are expected to rebound to RMB 112,000-114,000/mt.