About 40% of Chinese Tin Smelters See Tin Prices Fall This Week: SMM Survey

SHANGHAI, Mar. 29 (SMM) – About 40% of Chinese tin smelters surveyed by SMM expect tin prices to fall this week.

These bearish market players see spot tin prices in Shanghai fall to RMB 108,000/mt and LME tin testing support at USD 17,000/mt. The technical side is negative for SHFE tin, which will head for the 40-day moving average. Recent pullback in ferrous metals prices will dampen market sentiment. Trading will be thin in Shanghai spot tin market. 

Another 40% see SHFE 1605 tin rising to RMB 112,500-114,000/mt. Strong LME tin will offer upward momentum to SHFE tin. Some Chinese tin smelters controlled output due to growing environmental pressure, which will cut market supply and push spot prices up. A short squeeze is expected in SHFE 1605 tin contract. 

The rest 20% expect SHFE 1605 tin to fluctuate in a wide range of RMB 108,500-112,500/mt. SHFE 1605 tin fell on Monday due to exit of longs, but investors did not raise bearish bets aggressively. Tight supply in Shanghai spot tin market will discourage smelters from selling at lower prices. LME tin is expected to move at USD 17,000-17,500/mt.