Where is Peak for China Aluminum Inventory in H1 2016?

SHANGHAI, Mar. 29 (SMM) – Aluminum stocks in China’s five major markets grew steadily after the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, and reached 928,000 tonnes as of March 15. Could this figure mark the peak for first half of this year?

The answer is yes, says SMM aluminum analyst Liu Xiaolei. In fact, the turning point has already emerged, with stocks down to 913,000 tonnes as of March 17, and stocks have been falling ever since. 

Higher costs from rising alumina and coal prices will deter massive capacity restarts. And tight bank lending will also curtail release of new capacity, Liu explained. 

In conclusion, SMM sees capacity restarts and new capacity release not enough to fill in supply gap from previous production cuts.  

The table below shows details of aluminum stocks at China’s five major markets:

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