SHANGHAI, Mar. 19 (SMM) – LME copper is poised to gather more strength this coming week on a series of positive factors, SMM says.
US St. Louis Fed president will make a speech later this week on US economy and monetary policy. Investors will eye US February durable goods orders, Q4 core PCE price index, actual annualized Q4 GDP, as well as other US economic data. The ECB will release monthly economic report, which will likely allow the US dollar index to come to stabilize. Crude oil prices will gain momentum for more gains, on the back of upcoming meeting between OPEC members and non-OPEC members in Doha, falling crude oil output and growing demand in the US, as well as a softer US dollar. Low LME copper stocks have pushed backwardation of LME cash copper over LME three-month copper to $26 per tonne. SEE sees LME copper creeping even higher to $4,980-5,300 per tonne.
It was reported that the PBOC asked selected banks about their need for MLF and cut MLF rate by 25 basis points to the lowest level since September. Chinese yuan strengthened further to 6.48 against the US dollar, the highest since December 30, 2015. The PNOC made it clear that it does not tolerate big fall in yuan. Chinese A share market looks set to head for 3,000. It must not be neglected, though, that copper stocks in China have approached a record high of nearly 1 million tonnes, which will limit price upside room. SMM sees SHFE 1605 copper ranging 37,700-39,750 yuan per tonne, rising at first before falling back.
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