40% Market Players in China Pessimistic over Lead Prices This Week,SMM Survey

SHNGHAI, Mar. 15(SMM) - SMM surveyed 30 Chinese lead producers to learn their attitudes towards lead prices this week and the survey shows that 40% industry insiders believe that LME lead will slip to USD 1,800/mt this week and spot lead prices will drop to RMB 13,400/mt citing poor downstream demand.

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Some large battery producers are lacked in orders at present after completing bidding projects won in 2015, decreasing purchase for lead. Downstream buyers still favor secondary refined lead despite narrowing price gap between it and refined lead. Hence, trading is modest for secondary refined lead compared with refined lead, attracting lots of traders into secondary refined lead market. This will weigh on lead prices.

13% of investors anticipate that LME lead will challenge USD 1,880/mt this week and SHFE 1605 lead will challenge RMB 14,000/mt. Markets expect additional looser policies in China after the NPC &CPPCC, which will help improve the country’s economy. This is supported by recent positive sales data in property market in China. Firm secondary lead prices will also lend some support to refined lead prices. Rising scrap battery prices boost secondary lead prices and some disqualified secondary lead smelters are inclined to halt operation in face of environmental protection inspection. 

47% respondents note that lead prices will move in current range this week and LME lead will struggle around USD 1,850/mt and SHFE 1605 lead will move around RMB 13,750/mt. Technically, SHFE lead prices have stabilized for nearly one month and currently move above moving averages. Rising strength is also lacking for SHFE lead prices. Also, negative effect from sluggish demand will be offset by anticipation for looser policies and steady SHFE lead prices.