About 30% of Chinese Tin Smelters Optimistic over Tin Prices This Week: SMM Survey

SHANGHAI, Mar. 1 (SMM) – About 30% of Chinese tin smelters surveyed by SMM expect tin prices to rise this week.

These optimists see spot tin prices in Shanghai rising further to RMB 115,000-116,000/mt. Recent rise in SHFE tin prices has been driven mainly by tightening supply in domestic market. Technically, SHFE tin is poised to advance further to near RMB 120,000/mt. LME tin stocks fell to less than 4,000 mt. Stimulus measures in China will boost risk appetite. As such, LME tin is expected to climb further to USD 17,300-17,600/mt.    

Another 40% expect spot tin prices in Shanghai to stabilize at RMB 112,000-114,000/mt. Recent rise in spot tin prices has been supported mainly by big gains in SHFE tin prices. The game between longs and shorts will become more intense after continuous rise of SHFE tin. Moreover, SHFE tin should face correction after sustainable rise, which in turn will deprive spot prices of upward momentum. On the other hand, tin ore suppliers has been holding back goods out of bullishness, tightening raw material supply for tin smelters. This will allow tin smelters to hold back goods at lows. SHFE tin should range RMB 108,500-114,500/mt and USD 16,300-16,500/mt for LME tin. 

The rest 30% are bearish that spot tin prices in Shanghai will drop to RMB 110,000-112,000/mt. LME tin will face downward correction after continuous gains and test support at USD 16,700/mt or USD 16,200/mt. It appears that SHFE tin’s upward momentum is waning. This, together with weak downstream demand, will send spot prices back down.