SHANGHAI, Feb. 23 (SMM) – About 50% of Chinese tin smelters surveyed by SMM expect tin prices to rise this week.

These optimists expect spot tin prices in Shanghai to rise to RMB 104,000-106,000/mt, citing strong SHFE tin as main reason. SHFE tin has been holding firm recently as major Chinese tin smelters announced output cuts. SHFE tin even broke through RMB 100,000/mt last Friday, and continued rising on Monday. Yunnan Tin Group has been controlling shipment, cutting market availability. These market players also expect LME tin to challenge resistance at USD 16,000/mt and SHFE tin to test resistance at RMB 103,000/mt or RMB 106,000/mt.  

Another 30% expect spot tin prices in Shanghai to stabilize at RMB 103,000-105,000/mt. They believe that recent gains in SHFE tin will not last for very long and that spot prices will fall back due to poor demand once SHFE tin loses upward momentum. Tin ore supply increased after the week-long holiday, which will keep tin prices in check. These surveyed see LME tin moving between USD 15,000-16,000/mt and SHFE tin ranging RMB 100,000-103,000/mt. 

The rest 20% are bearish that spot tin prices in Shanghai will fall back to RMB 101,000-104,000/mt. They understand that the latest wave of price gains were driven by stimulus policies in property market and will not last long. SHFE tin will likely fall back to test support at RMB 100,000/mt. Weak SHFE tin, together with soft demand, will drag spot prices down. LME tin, however, will remain firm at USD 15,000-16,000/mt, they expected.