SHANGHAI, Feb. 16 (SMM) –About 65% of the 20 Chinese aluminum smelters surveyed by SMM expect aluminum prices to stabilize this week.

They expect LME aluminum to hover between USD 1,500-1,520/mt and SHFE 1604 aluminum to consolidate at RMB 10,750-10,900/mt. Aluminum stocks in China’s major trading markets grew significantly after the week-long holiday, but were lower than in the same period last year. Downstream demand has yet to fully recover. Traders were actively stockpiling goods out of optimism. 

Another 10% are bearish that LME aluminum will fall to USD 1,480-1,500/mt and that SHFE 1604 aluminum will drop below RMB 10,700/mt, citing a series of negative factors: US non-farm payrolls were poor; GDP in the euro zone grew slowly in December; Japan’s GDP missed forecast in Q4; China’s manufacturing PMI was poor in January. Aluminum consumption in China in 2016 is expected to be weaker than in 2015. Many aluminum ingots arrived during the week-long holiday. But many aluminum processors will not return to work until after the Chinese Lantern Festival.  

The rest 25% see SHFE 1604 aluminum rising above RMB 10,900/mt and LME aluminum rising to USD 1,525-1,545/mt. They gave several reasons: SHFE aluminum rose on the first trading day after the week-long holiday due to long buying, indicating market optimism; Technical chart is positive for SHFE aluminum; Aluminum stocks in major trading markets, though up from pre-holiday level, are lower than a year ago. Cargo holders are holding back goods, waiting for demand to pick up. Expectations are running high that the US Fed will slow rate hike process following dovish speech by US Fed Chair Yellen.