SHFE Copper Dragged Down by Chinese Stock Market Meltdown (2016-1-26)

Commerzbank said on Thursday December 2 that it expects that by the end of next year, the copper prices should be trading around $9,500/mt.

The copper prices surged again after the National Day holiday. The US dollar index fell below 94 from a high of 94.5. The US crude oil prices have jumped to $82/barrel after rising for more than one month, driving a rally in the global industrial product prices. The global copper inventories are at a historical low. The LME copper cash-to-three-month backwardation expanded rapidly to $257/mt after breaking through $100/mt, setting a new high since 2007. LME copper exceed $10,000/mt to a high of $10,300/mt, with a weekly increase of 9.25%.

LME copper will swing widely next week, while SHFE copper is poised for a rebound, SMM expects.

On Thursday’s night trading, SHFE 1610 copper opened higher at RMB 37,480/mt.

SHFE 1610 copper opened lower at RMB 37,710/mt overnight and then dived to RMB 48,450/mt with shorts gathering strength.

LME copper will grow to USD 4,865-4,925/mt during Asian trading hours Monday thanks to softer dollar and US improved manufacturing industry.

LME copper will consolidate at highs of USD 4,810-4,860mt during Asian trading hours Friday with growing sell-off pressure.

LME copper will slide to USD 4,510-4,560/mt during Asian trading hours Wednesday due to firmer dollar and softer crude oil prices.

LME copper will grow to USD 4,540-4,585/mt during Asian trading hours Tuesday thanks to softer dollar.

SHFE 1607 copper should perform better than LME copper on May 24.