LME Copper to Fall from High (2016-1-20)

Commerzbank said on Thursday December 2 that it expects that by the end of next year, the copper prices should be trading around $9,500/mt.

The copper prices surged again after the National Day holiday. The US dollar index fell below 94 from a high of 94.5. The US crude oil prices have jumped to $82/barrel after rising for more than one month, driving a rally in the global industrial product prices. The global copper inventories are at a historical low. The LME copper cash-to-three-month backwardation expanded rapidly to $257/mt after breaking through $100/mt, setting a new high since 2007. LME copper exceed $10,000/mt to a high of $10,300/mt, with a weekly increase of 9.25%.

LME copper will drop to USD 6,940-6,990/mt today on negative technical side, while SHFE 1712 copper will move at RMB 54,100-54,600/mt. 

Most base metals fell yesterday. Copper prices corrected down further due to strong US dollar.

Copper prices will have no reason to stay below $5,500 per tonne in the fundamental respect, said Radoslaw Domagalski-Labedzki, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of KGHM.

LME copper will range between USD 4,820-4,860/mt on Friday and SHFE 1611 copper is predicted to move at RMB 37,500-37,800/mt.

SHFE 1611 copper started at RMB 36,640/mt and closed at RMB 36,570/mt, down RMB 90/mt with positions down 280.

SHFE 1611 copper started higher at RMB 36,440/mt and ended at RMB 36,670/mt, up RMB 190/mt with positions up 13,792.

SHFE copper is expected to range at RMB 36,200-36,600/mt, supported by positive reading of China’s profits for industrial enterprisesin July.

LME copper will swing widely next week, while SHFE copper is poised for a rebound, SMM expects.