37% Chinese Investors Bearish toward Nickel Prices This Week, SMM Survey

Published: Dec 29, 2015 09:25

Save

SMM surveyed 30 market players to find that 4 are bullish, 15 are neutral and 11 are bearish toward nickel prices this week.

SHANGHAI, Dec. 29 (SMM) – SMM surveyed 30 market players to find that 4 are bullish, 15 are neutral and 11 are bearish toward nickel prices this week.

The 13% optimistic ones see LME nickel rise to USD 8,600-8,700/mt. Major economic indicators from the US were mixed, with the US dollar index falling. European economy is recovering. China’s NPI producers are reluctant to sell, and nickel ore inventories fell due to the monsoon season in the Philippines. This should help nickel price rebound.

Some 50% see LME nickel fluctuate between USD 8,450-8,600/mt. Pressures from the US dollar index decreased as the US dollar index stabilized. Despite China’s NPI producers holding back goods, the Shanghai/LME nickel price ratio remains high, incentivizing inflows of imported zinc. LME nickel inventories also returned to a high level. When combined with pressure for stainless steel prices, LME zinc should hover in a wide range. SHFE 1605 nickel should move between RMB 68,000-69,000/mt.

About 37% are bearish, expecting LME nickel to fall to USD 8,300/mt. Profit at Chinese large industrials fell further in November. Stainless steel prices have fallen to an extremely low level, with severe overcapacity. Despite lower NPI supplies in China, there are still large inflows of imported nickel, adding to oversupply. SHFE 1605 nickel should fall to RMB 66,000-66,500/mt.

LME nickel prices SHFE nickel prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

5 hours ago

Boliden Temporarily Halts Garpenberg Zinc Mine Due to Seismic Activity

[Garpenberg Zinc Concentrates Production Was Suspended Due to Seismic Activity] According to Boliden, production at the Garpenberg mine was temporarily suspended on March 14 due to seismic activity, and the beneficiation plant subsequently also halted production. Seismic activity has since eased, and preliminary inspections of the mine began on March 18. Mine production will gradually resume after inspections of the infrastructure and mining workplaces are completed. It is not yet possible to determine the timing of the production restart or the pace of ramp-up. In 2025, Garpenberg's zinc concentrate production was 101,700 mt in metal content.

5 hours ago

Typhoon Disrupts Australian Zinc Concentrate Supply, Spot TC Quotations Fall to Negative Levels

[Imported Zinc Concentrate Market] Recently, typhoon weather in Australia has continued to disrupt zinc concentrate transportation, and expectations of tight imported zinc concentrates are expected to persist. Traders in the market have continued to lower TC quotations, and currently quotations for zinc-rich concentrates on spot cargo vessels have fallen to negative levels.

5 hours ago

6 hours ago

Jan-Feb Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Exports Up Slightly YoY, Backed by Southeast Asia

According to the latest customs data, China’s total exports of die-casting zinc alloy from January to February reached 689.33 mt, up slightly by 0.9 percentage points YoY on a cumulative basis; imports, however, totaled 48.11 million mt, down 35.46 percentage points YoY on a cumulative basis. Overall, China’s die-casting zinc alloy trade from January to February showed a pattern of slightly higher exports and a significant pullback in imports.

6 hours ago