Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2015-12-8)

SHANGHAI, Dec. 8 (SMM) – Market will eye the euro zone’s revised Q3 GDP, US IBD Economic Optimism Index for December due for release on Tuesday. China will release November foreign trade data later this week. 

China’s official manufacturing PMI and Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI diverged from each other in November in terms of new export orders. New export order sub-index under China’s official manufacturing PMI shrank at a faster pace, indicating sluggish external demand. New export order sub-index under Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI, which mainly covers SMEs, by contrast, recorded its fastest growth in 13 months. Considering that SMEs take a larger share than large ones in society, China’s exports are likely to improve in November.   

Euro zone’s Q3 GDP, released in November, missed forecasts, strengthening hopes for more stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB). Should revised euro zone Q3 GDP disappoints again, the ECB is likely to take further action. ECB President said last Friday that the ECB could adjust its monetary policy anytime as appropriate to fulfill goal for economic growth.  

While expectations are running wild for the US Fed to hike interest rate in December, not all US economic data are positive. Tepid salary growth is dampening American people’s willingness to spend. This will drag on US IBD Economic Optimism Index for December somehow.