SHANGHAI, Dec. 1 (SMM) – 66% of the 38 Chinese aluminum smelters surveyed by SMM are bearish toward this week’s aluminum prices.
Another 21% expect prices to stabilize, while the rest 13% see a rally.
See SMM forecast, please click: LME Aluminum to Extend Upward Momentum Next Week
Those pessimists see LME aluminum falling below USD 1,450/mt and SHFE 1602 aluminum down below RMB 10,000/mt. Domestic aluminum processors will show lower buying interest, due to poor end-user demand, tightening year-end liquidity and recent volatility in SHFE aluminum. Moreover, suppliers will rush to sell to raise cash, another drag on the light metal.
Those neutralists see SHFE 1602 aluminum hovering around RMB 10,000/mt. Short-covering will occur once SHFE aluminum retreat from RMB 10,000/mt, but longs will take profit after SHFE aluminum return to near RMB 10,500/mt.
The rest expect LME aluminum to return above USD 1,480/mt and SHFE 1602 aluminum rise above RMB 10,200/mt. More Chinese aluminum smelters are expected to cut output against growing losses from falling aluminum prices. Meanwhile, new capacity is commissioned at a slower pace. This will ease oversupply pressure. Aluminum stocks in China’s major trading markets fell, suggesting that output cut is beginning to yield result.