LME Aluminum to Extend Upward Momentum Next Week

Indonesian nickel ore CIF average prices remained broadly stable, with the latest SMM assessment: 1.2% Ni: CIF price at $25.5/wmt, unchanged 1.3% Ni: CIF price at $27.5/wmt, unchanged 1.4% Ni: CIF price at $48.7/wmt, unchanged 1.5% Ni: CIF price at $54.2/wmt, unchanged 1.6% Ni: CIF price at $59.0/wmt, unchanged In the upstream market, nickel ore prices have weakened from late-September levels as additional RKAB quotas gradually enter the market and sellers face increasing pressure to adjust prices. SMM reported that discounts have officially emerged, with some ore prices falling below the HPM benchmark. Meanwhile, the first-half October nickel HMA was reduced to $16,322.67/mt, down $375.33/mt, or 2.25%, from the second-half September HMA of $16,698/mt.

Weather conditions across major nickel-producing and logistics areas in the Philippines, Indonesia and China are expected to remain generally manageable on October 5–11, with localized weather potentially causing short-term operational disruptions. In the Philippines, Palawan and Surigao may see scattered rain and thunderstorms on October 6–7, while rainfall could increase in Eastern Visayas and Mindanao on October 8–9, posing temporary risks to mine-road transport, ore barging and vessel loading. In Indonesia, Morowali and Konawe are expected to remain relatively stable, with low rainfall and no significant storm activity. Halmahera and Obi may see occasional rain and stronger winds, which could briefly affect marine logistics. In China, major nickel ore receiving ports are expected to remain largely operational, although localized rain and stronger winds could cause brief delays to vessel handling and cargo transportation.

On October 2, protests over mining-related dust and environmental impacts escalated into unrest at PT Astima Konstruksi (PT Askon) in Matarape Village, Morowali Regency, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Local media reported that protesters burned several vehicles and excavators, while access to the company's hauling road and jetty was blocked, disrupting material transportation. Police subsequently evacuated Chinese nationals from the site. The incident has raised concerns over potential disruptions to nearby nickel mining and logistics activities. However, as of October 5, no confirmed reports have established the extent of production suspensions or reductions at specific nickel mines. Further attention should be paid to the restoration of transportation access, local security conditions, and any subsequent impact on nickel ore supply.