Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2015-11-18)

On Sept 16, a fatal fall took the life of a subcontractor worker during roof work at Plant 2 of Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter in Ulsan, South Korea. The incident occurred on the roof of the condenser room, part of the roasting and sulphuric-acid system at the front end of the zinc flowsheet, while a ventilation fan was being installed. The accident arose from exterior construction work and did not damage the main smelting equipment. However, if the roasting-acid system is taken offline, the zinc roasters cannot sustain normal operation. No production cut, maintenance shutdown or suspension notice has been issued, and investigations are under way. Whether a work-stoppage order will be issued — and how broad its scope would be — and whether the company voluntarily halts the affected system for inspection remain unknown; the output impact is therefore uncertain. As a very rough sensitivity reference based on the smelter's nameplate capacity of roughly 640,000 t/y, a 3-7 day shutdown would imply a volume impact on the order of several thousand tonnes — but this is an order-of-magnitude estimate only, and the actual impact depends on the scope and duration of any inspection-related halt. Coming in a year when several overseas smelters (Nexa's Cajamarquilla, Glencore's Kazzinc and Young Poong's Seokpo) have already been disrupted amid a tight global refined-zinc market, the incident may lend short-term bullish sentiment to zinc, while the actual impact on output requires continued monitoring.

[Rate Hike Lands, Macro Pressure Persists; China Destocking Supports SHFE Zinc's Rebound from Lows] In the daytime session, the SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 26,080 yuan/mt, dipped to 25,970 yuan/mt in early trading, then consolidated and rebounded, reaching a high of 26,335 yuan/mt near the close before settling at 26,280 yuan/mt, up 95 yuan/mt, or 0.36%. Trading volume increased to 64,810 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,860 lots to 124,000 lots......

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 17 Sep , 2026