SMM Aluminum Market Daily Review (2015-11-9)

Published: Nov 10, 2015 10:05

Save

SHFE 1601 aluminum briefly touched RMB 10,625/mt after opening at RMB 10,615/mt on Monday, but then fell back to RMB 10,570/mt in morning trading.

SHANGHAI, Nov. 10 (SMM) –SHFE 1601 aluminum briefly touched RMB 10,625/mt after opening at RMB 10,615/mt on Monday, but then fell back to RMB 10,570/mt in morning trading. In the afternoon, longs exited as prices lacked upward momentum, sending prices down to RMB 10,530/mt. Finally, the most active contract ended up RMB 5/mt at RMB 10,550/mt. Trading volumes were up 22,402 lots to 227,000 lots, and positions were up 16,476 to 254,000.

In east China spot aluminum market, prices followed SHFE aluminum up on Monday. Suppliers were eager to sell for fear that the rise will be short-lived, but buying was poor. Prices were mainly between RMB 10,410-10,420/mt in Shanghai, discount of RMB 130-140/mt over SHFE 1511 aluminum, versus RMB 10,410-10,430/mt in Wuxi and RMB 10,410-10,420/mt in Hangzhou. In the afternoon, a few deals closed at RMB 10,410/mt.

SMM’s latest survey of 30 large Chinese aluminum smelters, traders and processors reveals the following results:

Half of them expect aluminum prices to stabilize this week: They understand that both longs and shorts are cautious about entering, given that aluminum price trend is unclear.

Another 33% are bearish: LME aluminum will fall below USD 1,510/mt, and SHFE 1601 aluminum contract will fall below RMB 10,500/mt. A firm US dollar and weak SHFE aluminum will act as a drag on LME aluminum. In domestic spot market, processors will show low buying interest, while smelters and traders will be eager to sell for cash, which will widen spot discounts. As for SHFE aluminum, many shorts have yet to withdraw. Once prices rise, more shorts will enter, thus pulling prices down again.

The rest 17% are bullish: LME aluminum will return above USD 1,530/mt, and SHFE 1601 aluminum contract will rebound above RMB 10,650/mt. News came in about production cuts at aluminum smelters and alumina refineries in China. Market hopes are growing that China will hike export rebate on aluminum semis. These will help drive a rally in aluminum prices.

Al price SHFE aluminum prices Shanghai aluminum prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

Chungnam National University Researchers Develop Zinc Batteries with Enhanced Stability

Researchers at Chungnam National University have developed next-generation zinc batteries using artificial polymer nanolayers to significantly improve stability. This novel protective coating helps prevent dendrite formation and reduces unwanted side reactions, enhancing the overall reliability and practicality of zinc-ion batteries. Aqueous zinc-ion batteries (ZIBs) are increasingly being recognized as a safer and more cost-effective alternative to lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Although LIBs remain the dominant energy storage solution, they pose safety concerns due to their use of flammable organic electrolytes. In comparison, aqueous ZIBs rely on water-based electrolytes, making them non-flammable, more environmentally friendly, and cheaper.

1 hour ago

4 hours ago

Improved Macro Sentiment Lifted the Center of SHFE Zinc in Line With LME Zinc [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, SHFE zinc posted a small bullish candlestick, with the center of the daily candlestick moving higher again, while the middle band of the Bollinger Bands formed resistance above. Overnight, amid expectations that the geopolitical conflict may come to an end, China followed outside China with its center moving higher, but judging from current spot cargo transactions, as zinc prices rose, downstream pricing activity weakened, coupled with......

4 hours ago

LME Zinc Posted a Four-Day Winning Streak, Focus on Trump's Speech Today [SMM Morning Meeting Summary]

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Zinc Posted a Four-Day Winning Streak; Focus on Trump's Speech Today] Overnight, LME zinc posted a four-day winning streak, with the center of the daily candlestick moving higher. Trump released a TACO signal, expectations for an end to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East increased, the US dollar index fell, nonferrous metals saw bargain hunting, zinc inventory remained at low levels, and bears' exit provided support, driving zinc prices all the way up. Focus on......

4 hours ago