Will China Aluminum Semis Exports Surge if Rebate Hike Rumor Proves True?

SHANGHAI, Nov. 5 (SMM) –Rumor is flying around that the Chinese government is mulling over hiking rebate on aluminum semis exports and resuming duty on primary aluminum imports. Will Chinese aluminum semis flood into overseas market should the rumor prove true? 

It is perhaps too early to cheer up, SMM points out. 

Even if China does raise export rebate, the upward revision will not exceed 2-4%, which is too small to have any significant impact on exports. At present, China offers 13% VAT rebate on exports of aluminum extrusions and 15% VAT rebate on exports of aluminum foil. The VAT rebate is 17% at maximum. 

In fact, massive outflow of Chinese aluminum semis has already triggered much anger in overseas market. Any hike in export rebate will only lead to more anti-dumping probes. 

All that said, global economic downturn means Chinese firms are unlikely to report much increase in export orders.   

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