SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-10-20)

SHANGHAI, Oct. 20 (SMM) – LME lead opened higher at USD1,810/mt overnight and then touched a low of USD 1,788/mt due to worries about China’s economy slowdown for poor reading of GDP, to end at USD 1,789/mt, down USD 21/mt. Trading volumes declined 1,046 to 2,649 lots while positions grew 741 to 126,207.

SHFE 1512 lead outperformed others on Monday evening. The contract started at RMB 13,470/mt and once shot up to RMB 13,880/mt with exit of shorts. The price later fell back slightly and ended at RMB 13,530/mt, up by RMB 55/mt or 0.41%. Trading volumes decreased 2,676 to 1,212 lots and positions fell 68 to 15,522.

China’s GDP grew 6.9% YoY in Q3, beating forecast but still the lowest level since the financial crisis. This triggered concerns over economy slowdown in China. When combined with US dollar rally, base metal prices will be depressed. LME lead will hover between USD 1,780-1,810/mt during Asian trading hours. SHFE 1512 lead should slightly outperform LME lead and move between RMB 13,450-13,600/mt on October 20. In China, downstream demand weakens and spot lead will range between RMB 13,450-13,550/mt.