Macquarie:Lead Price to Up Only 1% in 2016 on Oversupply

SHANGHAI, Oct. 17 (SMM) – Macquarie expects lead average price to be grow 1% to $ 1,843 per tonne in 2016 mainly as slower consumption of 2.5% leads to global oversupply, SMM reports.

Lead price is predicted to average $ 1,800 per tonne in Q4 this year, above Q3’s $ 1,730 per tonne but below the first half year’s level. Besides, LME lead average price should fall 13.5% YoY to $ 1,827 per tonne in 2015.

As of October 14, LME lead prices have dropped 4% accumulatively, outperforming others. LME nickel, zinc, tin, copper and aluminum have slipped 29%,17%,16%, 15% and 13%, respectively, SMM points out.

It is predicted that the global demand for refined lead will increase 2.1% in 2015, flat with 2014 but far missing 4.4% rise in 2013. Supply glut will remain in 2015-2016 due to sluggish demand. Nonetheless, supply shortage will fall in 2017 and then lead average price will grow to $ 1,918 per tonne, up 4% YoY. 

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