Barclays: Copper prices may melt down further

By  Paul Ploumis 06 Oct 2015  Last updated at  08:43:09 GMT

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper prices have slumped almost 10% in the third quarter of the current year. The prices have fallen almost 20% from the start of the year. But the worse is not yet over for the metal. The most recent analyst report released by Barclays forecasts further fall in copper prices. The investment bank predicts further sell-off in copper during the last quarter of the year.

According to Barclays, copper prices are likely to average at $4,850 per tonne during the final quarter of the year. This implies further cut of over 5% from current price levels. The rise in copper production is likely to aggravate the surplus situation, which may accelerate the price fall. Barclays forecasts copper market surplus at 380 kilotonnes at end-2015.

The investment firm fears that weakening signs of manufacturing production in countries across the globe, especially in major consuming nations such as China poses further downside risks to the average price forecast. The sinking demand may exacerbate metal availability, which in turn may weigh on commodity prices.

Barclays further notes that price recovery in the metal will not happen without suspension of existing production. Copper prices may rise only if more companies cut back mine production.

During last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in their analyst report, had stated that copper prices may probably drop down to $4,800 a metric ton by the end of December and $4,500 at the end of next year. According to them, global copper supply is likely to exceed demand by 530 kilotonnes in 2016. The surplus is likely to increase further to 566 kilotonnes, 626 kilotonnes and 657 kilotonnes respectively in 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively.