LME Lead to Stay Range-Bound Next Week, SMM says

[SMM Daily Review: Market Cautious Ahead of CPI Data, Silver Consolidates on a Weak Note] SMM, October 14: US Fed officials struck a hawkish tone in succession, and the market awaited guidance from US September CPI data, leaving precious metals under pressure. In the spot market, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and buying sentiment was not boosted by the decline in futures. Transactions were mainly concluded at parity after price negotiations, with overall trading sluggish.

[SMM Gold Flash] Caledonia Mining announced that Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe produced 17,030 oz in Q3 2026, down 10.9% from 19,106 oz a year earlier, while nine-month output fell to 49,158 oz from 58,846 oz. The company attributed the quarter’s shortfall to inadequate compressed-air capacity in deeper high-grade areas and commissioning problems that left about 1,100 oz of free gold temporarily held in the plant. It cut 2026 production guidance to 69,000–72,500 oz from 72,000–76,500 oz. The disruption raises near-term unit-cost pressure: Caledonia lifted on-mine cost guidance to US$1,700–1,900/oz and AISC guidance to US$2,650–2,850/oz. Two of four new compressors had been deployed by 9 October, and management expects to recover the retained gold from mid-October after added elution capacity is commissioned. Those Q4 improvements remain forecasts; the verified development is lower Q3 output and revised guidance, not a completed production recovery.

[SMM Gold Flash] Ethiopia inaugurated its first National Precious Metals Refinery at the Bole Lemi Special Economic Zone on 10 October. The facility is a partnership between state-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings and Sam Precious Metals; Reuters put the initial investment at US$50 million. The Prime Minister’s Office said the refinery is designed to assay, refine and cast gold, and make gold and silver bars, with announced full-capacity processing of more than 600 tonnes of precious metals a year. The launch gives Ethiopia a domestic route to refine gold into export-ready bullion and potentially serve neighbouring producers, supporting traceability and retaining more processing value in Africa. However, the 600-tonne figure is design capacity for precious metals—not confirmed gold output—and neither the government nor operator disclosed current throughput, utilisation or feed commitments. The opening therefore establishes refining capability; it does not show that the plant is already operating at nameplate capacity.