Aluminum prices react now to idiosyncratic drivers: BofA Merrill Lynch-Shanghai Metals Market

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Aluminum prices react now to idiosyncratic drivers: BofA Merrill Lynch

Industry News 12:48:57PM Sep 11, 2015 Source:SMM

UNITED KINGDOM September 11 2015 9:35 AM    

LONDON (Scrap Register):  Correlations between metals prices were high ahead of the Great  Financial Crisis (GFC) and in the immediate aftermath of it. Prior to the GFC,  this was heavily influenced by exceptionally strong global economic growth and  Chinese demand, which swept the quotations of most commodities higher, said Bank  of America Merrill Lynch in a research note.

Meanwhile, immediately after  the Global Financial Crisis, cross-asset correlations remained high partially  because several governments implemented large fiscal stimulus packages and many  central banks flooded the markets with liquidity.
Yet, more recently,  individual metals have increasingly traded on their idiosyncratic fundamentals.  This has been reflected in a sharp drop in correlations.

According to  BofA Merrill Lynch, the decline in correlations highlights that fundamentals  matter for the base metals. Aluminium for instance is now trading at the levels  seen in 2001. In bank's view, this highlights that the metal is a capital-driven  industry, i.e. access to funding determines production decisions and producers  can raise/ decrease output at relative ease.

Meanwhile, the other metals  tend to be more resource-driven, i.e. changes to output are less influenced by  funding, but more by access to mines and ore bodies. In fact, the relatively  slow rebalancing of the copper market is one reason the metal has so far traded  well above average production costs, in contrast to aluminium, where almost half  of the industry has negative margins.

“The global economy lacks an  immediate driver that could boost global growth and metals demand across the  board. This suggests that the mined commodities may continue to trade on their  idiosyncratic fundamentals,” said the analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch.

As  China's rebalancing continues, metals will likely track normal business cycles,  but they are in need of a new structural growth driver. Yet, given aluminium is  a capital driven industry, it will in bank's view remain the long-term  underperformer in the metals complex even in upturns.


Aluminum prices react now to idiosyncratic drivers: BofA Merrill Lynch

Industry News 12:48:57PM Sep 11, 2015 Source:SMM

UNITED KINGDOM September 11 2015 9:35 AM    

LONDON (Scrap Register):  Correlations between metals prices were high ahead of the Great  Financial Crisis (GFC) and in the immediate aftermath of it. Prior to the GFC,  this was heavily influenced by exceptionally strong global economic growth and  Chinese demand, which swept the quotations of most commodities higher, said Bank  of America Merrill Lynch in a research note.

Meanwhile, immediately after  the Global Financial Crisis, cross-asset correlations remained high partially  because several governments implemented large fiscal stimulus packages and many  central banks flooded the markets with liquidity.
Yet, more recently,  individual metals have increasingly traded on their idiosyncratic fundamentals.  This has been reflected in a sharp drop in correlations.

According to  BofA Merrill Lynch, the decline in correlations highlights that fundamentals  matter for the base metals. Aluminium for instance is now trading at the levels  seen in 2001. In bank's view, this highlights that the metal is a capital-driven  industry, i.e. access to funding determines production decisions and producers  can raise/ decrease output at relative ease.

Meanwhile, the other metals  tend to be more resource-driven, i.e. changes to output are less influenced by  funding, but more by access to mines and ore bodies. In fact, the relatively  slow rebalancing of the copper market is one reason the metal has so far traded  well above average production costs, in contrast to aluminium, where almost half  of the industry has negative margins.

“The global economy lacks an  immediate driver that could boost global growth and metals demand across the  board. This suggests that the mined commodities may continue to trade on their  idiosyncratic fundamentals,” said the analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch.

As  China's rebalancing continues, metals will likely track normal business cycles,  but they are in need of a new structural growth driver. Yet, given aluminium is  a capital driven industry, it will in bank's view remain the long-term  underperformer in the metals complex even in upturns.