Energy Insight Report - Sep 10, 2015 : Karvy Commodities

Published: Sep 11, 2015 09:25

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Outlook: Crude prices are yesterday gone down as the global scenario for both Brent crude & WTI crude is on down side.

By Paul Ploumis 10 Sep 2015 Last updated at 07:01:06 GMT

Energy Insight

Crude Oil: Technical Recommendation

Exchange	Contract	S2	S1	PCP	R1	R2	Recommendation
NYMEX	Oct-15	43.1	43.6	44.15	45.2	46.2	Trading range 42.70-44.50
MCX	Sep-15	2932	2959	2989	3039	3083	Trading range 3040-2880

Review:

• Crude oil prices fell yesterday due to global negative cues
• WTI for the October contract went down by almost 4%, registering at $44.15/ barrel, whereas Brent on the other hand went down almost equal to WTI for the same month contract registering it at $47.58/ barrel

Outlook: Crude prices are yesterday gone down as the global scenario for both Brent crude & WTI crude is on down side. As per the Bloomberg’s survey, crude stockpiles are expected to move up for the second consecutive week. Already last week’s pileup was the biggest since multi- months; consecutive pile-up in the same may pull down prices further. With the end of the summer driving season, demand for the products side has got stalled in the US, lowering down the profitability of the refiners. Thus, refiners went down for the seasonal maintenance, due to which crude stockpiles are expected to rise this time also. Products side demand remaining stable could tend consuming from the existing inventories. Talking of the Brent, same negativity continues in it, though world is having an eye on OPEC’s Doha meeting. Not much positive outcome is expected from the same, as they had earlier signaled not reducing their current levels till Brent doesn’t goes down below $45/ barrel. Iran’s nuke deal is also expected to get cleared by March, 2016, as the IAEA extends their deadline by 3 months.Prices today are expected to remain on downside, as we can witness the early morning negativity in WTI, which is down by almost a percent. As per EIA’s STEO report, the average price of WTI is expected move down by 40 cents then what they fixed it earlier.

Natural Gas Technical Recommendations

Exchange	Contract	S2	S1	PCP	R1	R2	Recommendation
NYMEX	Oct-15	2.615	2.632	2.651	2.681	2.708	Sell at 2.6778-2.6780 TP 2.620 SL 2.710
MCX	Sep-15	174.8	175.8	176.9	178.8	180.6	Sell at 178.60-178.80 TP 175/173 SL 181

Review:

• NG prices yesterday moved down more than 2% for the October month contract at NYMEX
• On closing basis, NG registered itself at $2.651/ MMBTu

Outlook: NG prices went down yesterday as the inventory data is approaching. As per the Bloomberg’s survey, around 77 bcf NG is expected to inject this week, which was around 94 bcf last week. Though the injections are expected to move down but still the levels are too high if seen in accordance with consumption levels. As per the STEO report released by the DoE, the injection phase will close by end of October by which the inventories could run up to 3,840 bcf, which at present is around 3,193 bcf.

Courtesy :Karvy Commodities

Crude prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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