By Paul Ploumis 10 Sep 2015 Last updated at 03:36:55 GMT
Gold fell to a four-week low on Wednesday as stock markets strengthened and the dollar firmed, though prices remained hemmed into a narrow range ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
News & Development:
• Gold prices in India swung to a discount to the global benchmark this week for the first time since mid July as a weak monsoon
dampened demand in the world's second-biggest consumer.
• Saudi Arabia's crude oil production dipped by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, an industry source told Reuters on
Wednesday, but still maintained historically high output levels in line with a strategy of defending market share.
• Mexico cannot consider cutting oil output at the moment and has not been contacted by either OPEC members or other crude
producers to discuss the international oil market, Energy Minister Pedro Joaquin Coldwell told Reuters on Tuesday.
• British oil and gas production is set to rise for the first time in 15 years this year as investment in more efficient technology pays off,
the industry's association said on Wednesday.
• World No. 1 copper producer Codelco has temporarily halted the concentrator at its massive Chuquicamata mine for security
reasons, following a protest by contract workers, the Chilean-state owned miner told Reuters on Wednesday.
Gold fell to a four-week low on Wednesday as stock markets strengthened and the dollar firmed, though prices remained hemmed into a narrow range ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The gold market will be closely watching the U.S. central bank's next policy statement on Sept. 17 for clues on the timing of a U.S. interest rate rise. Gold has benefited in recent years from ultra-low rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding bullion while holding the dollar in check. Expectations rates will rise soon have helped push the metal down 5 percent this year. Global equity markets rose, helping lift the dollar as the prospect of more economic stimulus out of Asia soothed investors rattled by recent market turmoil. Gold has failed to attract strong investor interest as a safe haven, despite the recent weakness in stocks because of worries over the Chinese economy, showing that the metal is struggling to find direction outside U.S. monetary policy, analysts say. Physical prices were mixed with premiums rising on the Shanghai Gold Exchange but at a discount in India.
|Oct||Sideways ||25850 ||26000 ||26057 ||26180 ||26300|
Outlook : We expect gold prices to trade sideways on the back of uncertainty over US interest rate outlook.
Silver was down 1.7 percent at $14.56 an ounce.
|Dec|| Sideways ||34700 ||35000 ||35294 ||35500 ||35700|
Outlook : We expect silver prices to trade sideways on the back of uncertainty over US interest rate outlook.
Crude Oil :
Oil prices fell nearly 4 percent on Wednesday, pressured by ample supply and concerns about demand being curbed by slowing economic growth. Oil futures extended losses as U.S. equities turned lower after the prospect of economic stimulus from China boosted stock markets in Japan and Europe. Crude oil futures have been under pressure from concerns about swollen inventories, high global production and the increasing likelihood that Iranian barrels will return to export markets even as slowing growth in China threatens demand. Brent and U.S. crude fell to session lows in post-settlement trading after American Petroleum Institute data showed U.S. crude stocks rose 2.1 million barrels last week as refineries cut output. Gasoline and distillate inventories also increased. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected crude stocks to be up 900,000 barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its forecast for 2015 and 2016 world oil demand growth in its monthly report. Traders awaited a fresh snapshot of U.S. oil inventories from industry data due at 8:30 p.m. IST. While Saudi Arabia's crude oil production dipped by 100,000 barrels per day in August, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries continued to produce close to record volumes.
|Sep|| Sell @ R1 ||2925 ||2960 ||2989 ||3020 ||3050|
Outlook : We expect crude oil prices to trade negative on the back of ample supply and concerns about demand.
Natural Gas :
U.S. natural gas futures lost 2.2 percent on Wednesday as the market awaited Thursday's government storage report on forecasts for cooler but still above-normal temperatures for the next two weeks. The latest Global Forecast System weather model predicted temperatures in the lower 48 U.S. states would cool over the next two weeks, but remain at above-normal levels.
|Sep||Sep Sell @ R1 ||173 ||175 ||176.9 ||180 ||182|
Outlook : We expect Natural gas prices to trade negative on the back of weak demand.
Base Metals :
Copper scaled a seven-week high on Wednesday on expectations of tighter supplies, though the rally could be short-lived without improvements in demand from top consumer China or more substantial production cuts. A gain of about 5 percent so far this week was triggered by mining giant Glencore's plan to suspend 400,000 tonnes of copper output from Africa. Price pressure is still being exerted by weak growth in China, and by the strong dollar, which makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for non-U.S. firms. Over the next few weeks the market will discover how China's economy fared in August, with the release of a data including industrial production and investment figures. World No. 1 copper producer Codelco has temporarily halted the concentrator at its massive Chuquicamata mine for security reasons following a protest.
|Copper||Buy @ S1 ||360 ||362 ||363.3 ||365 ||367|
|Nickel||Buy @ S1 ||660 ||666 ||668.0 ||674 ||680|
|Alum||Sideways ||106.5 ||107.5 ||108.0 ||108.5 ||109.5|
|Lead||Sell @ R1 ||112 ||113 ||114.1 ||115 ||116|
|Zinc||Sell @ R1 ||119.5 ||120.5 ||121.0 ||121.5 ||122.5|
Outlook : We expect base metal prices to trade mixed on the back of slowdown in China and growth in Europe is likely to keep markets mixed.
|Current Stock||346200 ||172250 ||553425 ||3213025 ||451356|
|Change||-6125 ||-2200 ||775 ||-6925||-606|
|% Change||-1.74% ||-1.26% ||0.14% ||-0.22%||-0.13%|
|DATE||TIME (IST)||COUNTRY||ECONOMIC DATA||CONSENSUS||PREVIOUS||IMPACT|
|Wed, Sep 9||2:00pm||UK||Manufacturing Production m/m||0.20%||0.20%||High|
|7:30pm||UK||NIESR GDP Estimate|| 0.70% ||Medium|
|7:30pm||US||JOLTS Job Openings|| 5.30M || 5.25M ||Medium|
Courtesy :Sushil Finance