Metals and Currencies Daily Market Watch Sept 09, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade-Shanghai Metals Market

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Metals and Currencies Daily Market Watch Sept 09, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade

Industry News 08:56:48AM Sep 10, 2015 Source:SMM

By  Paul Ploumis 09 Sep 2015  Last updated at 05:55:24 GMT

Gold futures slightly retreated for a 10th day in the longest run of losses since 1996 as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further declines and investors sold more through funds.The metal dropped 6.1 percent as it fell every day since July 9 in New York

Macro Headlines

 • Asian stocks advanced amid US equities on China improved trade surplus data improved sentiments 

• U.S. small business confidence inclined modestly at 95.9 in August from 95.4

• Germany trade balance rose unexpectedly in last month as imports and exports hit record highs in value terms in July

• Euro zone economy rose 0.4% more than expectation of 0.3% in the second quarter

• Gold trading cautions ahead of FOMC meet due next week

Currencies

 • USDINR: The Indian rupee increased more than 1.5% against dollar on good amount of capital inflow in domestic markets on upbeat of China data. The rupee opened at 66.3800 a dollar, up 20 paisa from yesterday's close of 66.54. The early gains in the local share indices also supported the rise in the Indian currency. Today USDINR expected fall towards 66.20-66 levels on dollar stability against major pairs at 95.50 levels.

 • EURINR: The euro tumbled against INR today from more than 4 weeks high made on upbeat of European data. Euro zone growth rate expectedly increased to 0.4% in last quarter which remained supportive for the prices. EURINR expected to come down to 74.00 levels but unlikely to sustain below this

Commodities

 • Base Metals: London copper held steady near its highest in six weeks, touched the previous session, as traders bet China would beef up measures to strengthen its economy after August trade data showed flagging. Euro zone, Japan GDP and China trade balance supported the sentiments of metals. Base metals prices were weak on Friday night in the absence of US traders. Yesterday Copper outperformed with gain of 4, Nickel and zinc rose more than 3% and aluminum rose 2% off ate. China reported that copper imports in August down 8.1% on year on year. Any downbeat of US economic data will add buying pressure on metals on lower side. Copper majorly supported from supply disturbances held at major mining. Today other than UK manufacturing release there is no specific data from the global front, but metal will keep focusing on US economic indicators which may influence the decision of Fed rate due to release tomorrow. One can buy Copper, Aluminum and Nickel on lower side today as trading up more than 1-2% on LME. USDINR fall may limit the gains in terms of rupee on MCX.

Global Economic Events

Event

Country

Time (IST)

Estimates

Consumer ConfidenceJapan10.30 am40.6
Trade balanceUK02.00 pm-9.5B
Manufacturing ProductionUK02.00 pm0.2%
Industrial ProductionUK02.00 pm0.1%

 Precious Metals: Gold prices rose mildly in Asia last night with investors cautious ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates. Dollar index stability ahead of FOM meet supported gold prices. Gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.09% to $1122 a troy ounce and Silver futures for September delivery gained 0.30% to $14.80 a troy ounce. Gold expected to trade in the range of 26000-26500 with huge volatility ahead of Fed rate decision due in next week. Currently prices are likely to fluctuate in between the range of $1100-$1135 levels. Silver immediate support is at 34800 while upside cap is at 35600 levels

 Energy: Crude-oil Crude oil prices declined as ongoing concerns over the health of the global economy underlined worries over a global supply glut. US market closure shown speculative move last night. WTI futures dropped 1.74% to $45.25 barrel and Brent crude futures dropped 1.8% to $ 48.72 barrel. Today Chinese trade data marginally positive for oil Tuesday, but oil prices are expected to stay relatively muted as concerns about a China slowdown and oversupply continue to weigh on sentiment. But China Aug crude oil imports 26.59 mln tons, down 13% in year and Jan-Aug crude oil imports increased 9.78% to 220.67 mln tons Customs reported. Today prices are trading under pressure until prices reaches above 3000-3050 levels, immediate support at 2950-2880. Overall prices recovered from more than decades low at $38.50. Gas expected to trade in range of Rs175-185 levels on moderate weather conditions in US. Ahead of EIA stocks released buying can be done on lower side until prices go below Rs.171 levels.

LME Warehouse Updates (in ton)

MetalsTotal
Inventories
Cancelled
Warrants
(CW)
Change in
Stocks
Change in
CW
CW % of
Total
Inventory
Remarks
Aluminum-692532130250120170037.4CW ratio started improving from the lowest pace
Copper-612534620043005770016.67Canceled warrants jump 36% to highest since July 14
Nickel-6064513563616273836.06Stocks have fallen very sharply from highest levels in
record
Lead-220017225002657515.43Cancelled warrants 26% in the last week
Zinc775553425014155025.58Stockpiles in Antwerp double to highest since Feb 14

Trend Watch

MCXResistanceSupportComments
Gold2670026200Failure to break above 26700 will see prices slip towards 26200/26140.
Silver3600035200Need to sustain above 36000 to advance higher towards 36550/36850.
Crude oil31602940Sustenance above 3100 will see prices rebound towards 3160.
Copper370345.50Buy on dips prices will advance higher towards 368/370 over coming sessions.
Nickel681.50650Buy on dips counter can advance towards 680/685.
Zinc122.35117.65Sustenance above 121 will see prices advance towards 122
USDINR (Sep)67.1066.75Failure to break below 66.75 will see prices rebound towards 67 again.

Courtesy : Emkay Commotrade


Metals and Currencies Daily Market Watch Sept 09, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade

Industry News 08:56:48AM Sep 10, 2015 Source:SMM

By  Paul Ploumis 09 Sep 2015  Last updated at 05:55:24 GMT

Gold futures slightly retreated for a 10th day in the longest run of losses since 1996 as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further declines and investors sold more through funds.The metal dropped 6.1 percent as it fell every day since July 9 in New York

Macro Headlines

 • Asian stocks advanced amid US equities on China improved trade surplus data improved sentiments 

• U.S. small business confidence inclined modestly at 95.9 in August from 95.4

• Germany trade balance rose unexpectedly in last month as imports and exports hit record highs in value terms in July

• Euro zone economy rose 0.4% more than expectation of 0.3% in the second quarter

• Gold trading cautions ahead of FOMC meet due next week

Currencies

 • USDINR: The Indian rupee increased more than 1.5% against dollar on good amount of capital inflow in domestic markets on upbeat of China data. The rupee opened at 66.3800 a dollar, up 20 paisa from yesterday's close of 66.54. The early gains in the local share indices also supported the rise in the Indian currency. Today USDINR expected fall towards 66.20-66 levels on dollar stability against major pairs at 95.50 levels.

 • EURINR: The euro tumbled against INR today from more than 4 weeks high made on upbeat of European data. Euro zone growth rate expectedly increased to 0.4% in last quarter which remained supportive for the prices. EURINR expected to come down to 74.00 levels but unlikely to sustain below this

Commodities

 • Base Metals: London copper held steady near its highest in six weeks, touched the previous session, as traders bet China would beef up measures to strengthen its economy after August trade data showed flagging. Euro zone, Japan GDP and China trade balance supported the sentiments of metals. Base metals prices were weak on Friday night in the absence of US traders. Yesterday Copper outperformed with gain of 4, Nickel and zinc rose more than 3% and aluminum rose 2% off ate. China reported that copper imports in August down 8.1% on year on year. Any downbeat of US economic data will add buying pressure on metals on lower side. Copper majorly supported from supply disturbances held at major mining. Today other than UK manufacturing release there is no specific data from the global front, but metal will keep focusing on US economic indicators which may influence the decision of Fed rate due to release tomorrow. One can buy Copper, Aluminum and Nickel on lower side today as trading up more than 1-2% on LME. USDINR fall may limit the gains in terms of rupee on MCX.

Global Economic Events

Event

Country

Time (IST)

Estimates

Consumer ConfidenceJapan10.30 am40.6
Trade balanceUK02.00 pm-9.5B
Manufacturing ProductionUK02.00 pm0.2%
Industrial ProductionUK02.00 pm0.1%

 Precious Metals: Gold prices rose mildly in Asia last night with investors cautious ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates. Dollar index stability ahead of FOM meet supported gold prices. Gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.09% to $1122 a troy ounce and Silver futures for September delivery gained 0.30% to $14.80 a troy ounce. Gold expected to trade in the range of 26000-26500 with huge volatility ahead of Fed rate decision due in next week. Currently prices are likely to fluctuate in between the range of $1100-$1135 levels. Silver immediate support is at 34800 while upside cap is at 35600 levels

 Energy: Crude-oil Crude oil prices declined as ongoing concerns over the health of the global economy underlined worries over a global supply glut. US market closure shown speculative move last night. WTI futures dropped 1.74% to $45.25 barrel and Brent crude futures dropped 1.8% to $ 48.72 barrel. Today Chinese trade data marginally positive for oil Tuesday, but oil prices are expected to stay relatively muted as concerns about a China slowdown and oversupply continue to weigh on sentiment. But China Aug crude oil imports 26.59 mln tons, down 13% in year and Jan-Aug crude oil imports increased 9.78% to 220.67 mln tons Customs reported. Today prices are trading under pressure until prices reaches above 3000-3050 levels, immediate support at 2950-2880. Overall prices recovered from more than decades low at $38.50. Gas expected to trade in range of Rs175-185 levels on moderate weather conditions in US. Ahead of EIA stocks released buying can be done on lower side until prices go below Rs.171 levels.

LME Warehouse Updates (in ton)

MetalsTotal
Inventories
Cancelled
Warrants
(CW)
Change in
Stocks
Change in
CW
CW % of
Total
Inventory
Remarks
Aluminum-692532130250120170037.4CW ratio started improving from the lowest pace
Copper-612534620043005770016.67Canceled warrants jump 36% to highest since July 14
Nickel-6064513563616273836.06Stocks have fallen very sharply from highest levels in
record
Lead-220017225002657515.43Cancelled warrants 26% in the last week
Zinc775553425014155025.58Stockpiles in Antwerp double to highest since Feb 14

Trend Watch

MCXResistanceSupportComments
Gold2670026200Failure to break above 26700 will see prices slip towards 26200/26140.
Silver3600035200Need to sustain above 36000 to advance higher towards 36550/36850.
Crude oil31602940Sustenance above 3100 will see prices rebound towards 3160.
Copper370345.50Buy on dips prices will advance higher towards 368/370 over coming sessions.
Nickel681.50650Buy on dips counter can advance towards 680/685.
Zinc122.35117.65Sustenance above 121 will see prices advance towards 122
USDINR (Sep)67.1066.75Failure to break below 66.75 will see prices rebound towards 67 again.

Courtesy : Emkay Commotrade