Metals and Currencies Daily Market Watch Sept 08, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade-Shanghai Metals Market

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Metals and Currencies Daily Market Watch Sept 08, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade

Industry News 09:58:41AM Sep 09, 2015 Source:SMM

By  Paul Ploumis 08 Sep 2015  Last updated at  06:35:10 GMT

Macro Headlines

• China's trade surplus improved in August at 60.2B from estimates of 48.6B as exports slid by 5.5% and imports reduced 13.8%

• Germany Industrial production rebounds at 0.7% in July, missing the forecast of 1.2% in sign of solid recovery

• Japan’s current account balance rose more-than-expected last month while GDP fell unexpectedly fell in the last quarter at 1.5%

•Euro zone Sentix investor confidence slumps to 13.6 in Sept to the lowest since February

• China crude oil imports fell 13% in year at 26.59 mln tons in August according to China customs data showed

• Global copper market to see shortage in 2-3 years - Rio Tinto

Currencies

• USDINR: The Indian rupee trading up after massive slump of more than 1% near to 67 levels on FII outflow pressure on China worries and dollar strength against after US mixed jobs report. Some foreign banks started cutting their long dollar position noting the offers from a large south-based state-owned bank and two big Mumbai-based state-owned banks around 66.75 per dollar. The rupee opened at 66.7600 a dollar, up from yesterday's close of 66.8250.The early gains in the local share indices also supported the rise in the Indian currency. Today USDINR expected to trade in lackluster manner in between the range of 66.50-67 levels.

• EURINR: The euro recovered against the dollar on the release of Germany Industrial production and Euro zone business climate index met the estimates. As per the earlier forecast Euro is expected to trade firm above 75 levels ahead of Euro zone GDP and current account data due to release today.

Commodities

• Base Metals: LME Copper gained yesterday after commodity group Glencoe GLEN.L announced plans to shut down loss-making mines to help reduce a glut of supply that has weighed on prices. Prices also got the support from Rio Tinto comment that metals will fall into shortages within 2-3 years. Other metals traded cautious as US market remained closed and China resumed after long weekend. China reported that copper imports in August down 8.1% on year on year. Any downbeat of US economic data will add buying pressure on metals on lower side. Copper expected to trade firm above 345-348 levels today while Nickel likely to find support of 640. Zinc will come down to 117 level as overprices prices need to correct somewhere while Lead and aluminum expected to trade in range manner. European GDP data will bring trading move in the picture.

Global Economic Events

Event

Country

Time (IST)

Estimates

Final GDP (QoQ)Japan05.20 am-0.4%
Germany trade balanceEuro Zone11.30 am21.8B
Revised GDP (QoQ)Euro Zone02.30 pm0.3%
NFIB small business ConfidenceUS3.30 pm96.0

Precious Metals: Gold traded near to $1120 ounce as US market remain shut on Labor Day and U.S. payrolls data failed to provide clarity on the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Gold prices eased today in Asia as China reported a larger trade surplus that expected though imports slumped, possibly signaling room to ease monetary policy further. Gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 0.05% at $1,120.80 a troy ounce and Silver futures for September delivery slid 0.30% to $14.48 a troy ounce. Gold expected to trade volatile ahead of Fed rate decision due in next week. Currently prices are likely to fluctuate in between the range of $1100-$1135 levels. Silver immediate support is at 34800.

Energy: Crude-oil Crude oil prices declined as ongoing concerns over the health of the global economy underlined worries over a global supply glut. US market closure shown speculative move last night. WTI futures dropped 1.74% to $45.25 barrel and Brent crude futures dropped 1.8% to $ 48.72 barrel. Today Chinese trade data marginally positive for oil Tuesday, but oil prices are expected to stay relatively muted as concerns about a China slowdown and oversupply continue to weigh on sentiment. But China Aug crude oil imports 26.59 mln tons, down 13% in year and Jan-Aug crude oil imports increased 9.78% to 220.67 mln tons Customs reported. Today prices are trading under pressure until prices reaches above 3000-3050 levels, immediate support at 2950-2880. Overall prices recovered from more than decades low at $38.50. Gas expected to trade in range of Rs175-185 levels on moderate weather conditions in US. Ahead of EIA stocks released buying can be done on lower side until prices go below Rs.171 levels.

LME Warehouse Updates (in ton)

MetalsTotal
Inventories
Cancelled
Warrants
(CW)
Change in
Stocks
Change in
CW
CW % of
Total
Inventory
Remarks
Aluminum-895032199500120862537.54CW ratio started improving from the lowest pace
Copper-352535232512255952516.89Canceled warrants jump 36% to highest since July 14
Nickel-1668451962153616344636.16Stocks have fallen very sharply from highest levels in
record
Lead-2125174450-9002877516.49Cancelled warrants 26% in the last week
Zinc25775552650014165025.63Stockpiles in Antwerp double to highest since Feb 14

Trend Watch

MCXResistanceSupportComments
Gold2670026200Failure to break above 26700 will see prices slip towards 26200/26140.
Silver3600034800Sideways between 35850—34800. A correction is likely on a break below 34800.
Crude oil31602880Prices should slide lower towards 2900/2880. Sell on rise.
Copper358345.50Positive until prices stay above 345. Until then prices can rebound towards 357/358.
Nickel675650A break below 650 will see prices slip towards 635/630.
Zinc121116.30Prices should slide lower towards 116.30/116. Sell on rise.
USDINR (Sep)67.5566.75Buy on dips prices should advance towards 67.40/67.55

Courtesy : Emkay Commotrade

Emkay Commotrade Ltd.

7th Floor, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar - West, Mumbai - 400028. 

India Tel: +91 22 66121212 Fax: +91 22 66121299


Metals and Currencies Daily Market Watch Sept 08, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade

Industry News 09:58:41AM Sep 09, 2015 Source:SMM

By  Paul Ploumis 08 Sep 2015  Last updated at  06:35:10 GMT

Macro Headlines

• China's trade surplus improved in August at 60.2B from estimates of 48.6B as exports slid by 5.5% and imports reduced 13.8%

• Germany Industrial production rebounds at 0.7% in July, missing the forecast of 1.2% in sign of solid recovery

• Japan’s current account balance rose more-than-expected last month while GDP fell unexpectedly fell in the last quarter at 1.5%

•Euro zone Sentix investor confidence slumps to 13.6 in Sept to the lowest since February

• China crude oil imports fell 13% in year at 26.59 mln tons in August according to China customs data showed

• Global copper market to see shortage in 2-3 years - Rio Tinto

Currencies

• USDINR: The Indian rupee trading up after massive slump of more than 1% near to 67 levels on FII outflow pressure on China worries and dollar strength against after US mixed jobs report. Some foreign banks started cutting their long dollar position noting the offers from a large south-based state-owned bank and two big Mumbai-based state-owned banks around 66.75 per dollar. The rupee opened at 66.7600 a dollar, up from yesterday's close of 66.8250.The early gains in the local share indices also supported the rise in the Indian currency. Today USDINR expected to trade in lackluster manner in between the range of 66.50-67 levels.

• EURINR: The euro recovered against the dollar on the release of Germany Industrial production and Euro zone business climate index met the estimates. As per the earlier forecast Euro is expected to trade firm above 75 levels ahead of Euro zone GDP and current account data due to release today.

Commodities

• Base Metals: LME Copper gained yesterday after commodity group Glencoe GLEN.L announced plans to shut down loss-making mines to help reduce a glut of supply that has weighed on prices. Prices also got the support from Rio Tinto comment that metals will fall into shortages within 2-3 years. Other metals traded cautious as US market remained closed and China resumed after long weekend. China reported that copper imports in August down 8.1% on year on year. Any downbeat of US economic data will add buying pressure on metals on lower side. Copper expected to trade firm above 345-348 levels today while Nickel likely to find support of 640. Zinc will come down to 117 level as overprices prices need to correct somewhere while Lead and aluminum expected to trade in range manner. European GDP data will bring trading move in the picture.

Global Economic Events

Event

Country

Time (IST)

Estimates

Final GDP (QoQ)Japan05.20 am-0.4%
Germany trade balanceEuro Zone11.30 am21.8B
Revised GDP (QoQ)Euro Zone02.30 pm0.3%
NFIB small business ConfidenceUS3.30 pm96.0

Precious Metals: Gold traded near to $1120 ounce as US market remain shut on Labor Day and U.S. payrolls data failed to provide clarity on the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Gold prices eased today in Asia as China reported a larger trade surplus that expected though imports slumped, possibly signaling room to ease monetary policy further. Gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 0.05% at $1,120.80 a troy ounce and Silver futures for September delivery slid 0.30% to $14.48 a troy ounce. Gold expected to trade volatile ahead of Fed rate decision due in next week. Currently prices are likely to fluctuate in between the range of $1100-$1135 levels. Silver immediate support is at 34800.

Energy: Crude-oil Crude oil prices declined as ongoing concerns over the health of the global economy underlined worries over a global supply glut. US market closure shown speculative move last night. WTI futures dropped 1.74% to $45.25 barrel and Brent crude futures dropped 1.8% to $ 48.72 barrel. Today Chinese trade data marginally positive for oil Tuesday, but oil prices are expected to stay relatively muted as concerns about a China slowdown and oversupply continue to weigh on sentiment. But China Aug crude oil imports 26.59 mln tons, down 13% in year and Jan-Aug crude oil imports increased 9.78% to 220.67 mln tons Customs reported. Today prices are trading under pressure until prices reaches above 3000-3050 levels, immediate support at 2950-2880. Overall prices recovered from more than decades low at $38.50. Gas expected to trade in range of Rs175-185 levels on moderate weather conditions in US. Ahead of EIA stocks released buying can be done on lower side until prices go below Rs.171 levels.

LME Warehouse Updates (in ton)

MetalsTotal
Inventories
Cancelled
Warrants
(CW)
Change in
Stocks
Change in
CW
CW % of
Total
Inventory
Remarks
Aluminum-895032199500120862537.54CW ratio started improving from the lowest pace
Copper-352535232512255952516.89Canceled warrants jump 36% to highest since July 14
Nickel-1668451962153616344636.16Stocks have fallen very sharply from highest levels in
record
Lead-2125174450-9002877516.49Cancelled warrants 26% in the last week
Zinc25775552650014165025.63Stockpiles in Antwerp double to highest since Feb 14

Trend Watch

MCXResistanceSupportComments
Gold2670026200Failure to break above 26700 will see prices slip towards 26200/26140.
Silver3600034800Sideways between 35850—34800. A correction is likely on a break below 34800.
Crude oil31602880Prices should slide lower towards 2900/2880. Sell on rise.
Copper358345.50Positive until prices stay above 345. Until then prices can rebound towards 357/358.
Nickel675650A break below 650 will see prices slip towards 635/630.
Zinc121116.30Prices should slide lower towards 116.30/116. Sell on rise.
USDINR (Sep)67.5566.75Buy on dips prices should advance towards 67.40/67.55

Courtesy : Emkay Commotrade

Emkay Commotrade Ltd.

7th Floor, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar - West, Mumbai - 400028. 

India Tel: +91 22 66121212 Fax: +91 22 66121299