SHANGHAI, Sept. 8 (SMM) –SHFE 1509 tin opened at RMB 100,000/mt on Monday. The metal fell to RMB 97,630/mt, but then quickly rebounded to near its opening price, and ended up RMB 400/mt or 0.4% at RMB 100,000/mt. Trading volumes were down 52 lots to 104 lots, and positions were down 72 lots to 796 lots.
In Shanghai spot tin market, trading was muted, and mainstream traded prices fell to RMB 100,300-101,300/mt on September 7. Goods from Yunnan Tin Group traded at RMB 100,800-101,300/mt.
SMM’s latest survey of market players in domestic tin industry reveals the following results:
60% of them are bearish toward tin prices this week. They expect LME tin to fall below USD 14,800/mt or even USD 14,500/mt and SHFE 1509 tin to test support at RMB 100,000/mt or RMB 95,000/mt. US jobless rate fell to over 7-year low in August, implying that interest rate hike might still be on the table this month. Recent negative Chinese economic data wrecked havoc on the country’s stock market. Incoming economic indicators might offer more evidence of China’s economic slowdown. In this scenario, bearish sentiment will dominate market.
The rest expect tin prices to stabilize this week. SHFE 1509 tin should move between RMB 100,500-102,500/mt. LME tin might face correction after sharp declines. Indonesia did not export tin in August as new export policy begins to have an impact. This allowed backwardation in physical market to rise sharply, which will help put a floor under LME tin. Once LME tin stabilizes, market concerns in Chinese spot market will ease. More smelters in China cut output in August against raw material shortages, which will also offer support to prices.